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'A couple of lengthy articles giving bigger picture perspectives.'
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Dispatch Japan blog
October 13, 2010
NSC Shakeup Could Impact US-Japan Relations

The much-anticipated announcement by President Obama October 8 that Tom Donilon will be his new national security advisor might not be the greatest of news for US-Japan relations.

Donilon has been a prominent supporter of the blinkered view that “tough love” succeeded with Japan over the past year, moving a dangerously-naïve Yukio Hatoyama out of power, and opening the door for more pragmatic leaders of the DPJ to steer US-Japan relations back on track.

With the strong backing of Defense Secretary Bob Gates, Donilon’s perspective has until recently prevented a more flexible approach to the intractable Futenma problem from emerging within the Obama administration, sending the US-Japan alliance into one of its most contentious periods in many years.

The White House has placed a virtual moratorium on high-level celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the US-Japan Security Treaty, partly out of anger, and partly out of a determination to not give any sign of pulling back from insistence that the Henoko project to replace the US Marine Air Station Futenma move forward.

Donilon’s view has long but cautiously been opposed by Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who has argued that the focus from Washington should be on the entirety of the US-Japan alliance. Campbell has worked closely on this view with the Pentagon’s Asia chief Chip Gregson. Assisting Campbell has been retired US ambassador Rust Deming, who informally speaks for the “Japan Hand” community throughout the United States opposed to the Administration’s heavy focus on Futenma.

Until recently, Campbell and Gregson have been unable to convince their respective bosses, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Gates, that the Henoko project as currently crafted would not work, and that the Marines would have to come up with more flexible options for basing on Okinawa. Gates is not particularly fond of Japan, stemming from his days in the intelligence community, when he distrusted the ability of Japan to prevent intelligence and technology security breaches. Moreover, with wars ongoing in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Administration engaged in intense struggles over the proper troops levels for Afghanistan, Gates was adamantly opposed to pressuring the Marines to revisit Okinawa basing options.

Hillary Clinton has backed Gates because of a broader Pentagon-State alliance the two formed in favor of boosting the State Department’s funding and staffing levels for promotion of “soft power” and development diplomacy. Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg, often known as a friend of Japan, has tended to back Donilon more than his friend Campbell on the Okinawa issue.

Walking carefully

Campbell and Gregson have both had to walk a fine political line inside the Administration’s corridors of power. Campbell fought, and lost, with the Marines over a decade ago, when the idea of closing Futenma and relocating its operations to a new facility first arose. Campbell favored merging the Marines into the huge US Air Force Kadena base on Okinawa, and failed in an effort to kill funding for the futuristic Marine helicopter, the Osprey, which is now scheduled to be deployed to Okinawa in the coming years. Campbell does not relish the thought of more battles with the Marines.

Nor does Gregson, a retired Marine Corps general who worked closely with Campbell on Futenma issues over a decade ago. Gregson is known for his affinity for Okinawan people and culture, and is vulnerable to accusations that he is overly-sympathetic to Okinawans on issues relating to Futenma.

None of these disagreements reflect personal animosities. In the frenetic pace of policy making in Washington, the disagreements often reflect different perspectives developed for institutional and bureaucratic reasons. Donilon, for example, is reluctant to have the Futenma issue reach President Obama’s desk at a time when the President is managing a sometimes tense relationship with the Joint Chiefs over prosecution of the war in Afghanistan.

This view was reflected in the abrupt, even rude treatment accorded Prime Minister Hatoyama by Washington leading up to his resignation.

The somewhat dismissive attitude toward Japan worked in parallel with efforts by the Administration to develop a ‘strategic partnership’ with China, on everything from currency and other global economic matters, to climate change and North Korea.

The Administration has grudgingly come to accept that such a partnership is unlikely to develop any time soon. To the contrary, China has been decidedly uncooperative on currency and climate change issues, and has shown great reluctance to pressure North Korea. Moreover, the country’s huge, unexplained military buildup has relentlessly continued, and China has shown disturbing tendencies to try to bully neighboring East Asian neighbors, especially over disputed territories.

The result has been an Obama administration effort to reenergize alliance relationships in East Asia, and to cultivate broader political and security relationships with nonaligned nations, all carefully calibrated to dissuade Beijing from trying to throw its growing weight around the region.

Hillary Clinton delivered her now-famous address to the Asian Regional Forum meeting on July 23 in Hanoi, indirectly warning China to settle any territorial disputes in the region in a peaceful manner.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen had earlier voiced his growing concerns about the rapid, unexplained pace of China’s military buildup.

More recently, the Administration dispatched White House economic advisor Larry Summers, along with Donilon, to Beijing, for some tough talks on a range of issues. Donilon’s presence was a clear message that the Administration is increasingly (though far from totally) looking at China through a traditional security lens, rather than through the lens of a prospective broad partnership on global issues.

In that context, the recent disputes between China and Japan in the East China Sea opened the door for Campbell and others to argue that the Administration had mistakenly taken Japan for granted, and that an effective US strategy in Asia had to be conducted in close cooperation with Japan.

Vice President Joe Biden actually started this campaign earlier.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton acted on the Biden-Campbell theme when they held cordial meetings with Prime Minister Kan and Foreign Minister Maehara during the UN General Assembly meetings in New York in late September.

They were backed up by unequivocal statements of support for Japan during the dispute with China made by Secretary Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mullen.

For now, the Administration’s attitude toward Japan has dramatically changed, which Donilon is going along with. But Donilon is doing so primarily, overwhelmingly, with China on his mind, viewing Japan as a necessary piece in a broader US move to balance China in the region. Campbell, Gregson, and others see a close relationship with Japan as having great value in its own right, for bilateral, regional, and global reasons.

At this point, the two camps are united in a decision to temporarily shelve the Futenma issue, and concentrate on deepening the US-Japan alliance.

But the Futenma issue is not dead. Donilon remains determined to push it through, while Campbell favors more flexibility on the part of the Marines.

The two sides will eventually have to reconcile this big difference, and that might not happen until another round of intense stalemate over Futenma threatens to once again bog down the alliance.

But that kind of showdown won’t occur, if ever, for at least a few more months, during which time Washington and Tokyo will have a chance for a broader strategic dialogue. Who knows? Tom Donilon might even participate.

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See also:
http://www.dispatchjapan.com/blog/#tp
October 8, 2010
Campbell Downplays Futenma. Is A Solution In Sight?