Text Fwd: Following Cheonan friction, S.Korea at a diplomatic crossroads

The Hankyoreh Peace Institute, People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy, and the Three Press Groups‘ Verification Committee of the Results of the Cheonan Investigation host an event on the anniversary of the sinking of the Cheonan entitled, “Cheonan Truth and Democracy, and Peace on the Korean Peninsula,” at the National Assembly, Mar. 24. (Photo by Tak Ki-hyung)　

Hankyoreh
Following Cheonan friction, S.Korea at a diplomatic crossroads
:Seoul must decide whether to adhere to its hardline position or join the international shift towards dialogue
By Yi Yong-in, Staff Writer　
March 25, 2011

The year 2010 began with a timid thaw following the frosty political situation on the Korean Peninsula resulting from North Korea’s 2009 missile launch and nuclear test. In late March of that year, Pyongyang and Washington made secret arrangements for a visit to the U.S. by North Korean First Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan. D-Day was to be mid-April. Just as the two countries were about to finalize the agreement, the Cheonan went down on Mar. 26.
With the sinking, the situation on the peninsula went into zero visibility conditions, where everything was unpredictable. Conflict deepened between Seoul and Beijing, and a clash of power arose between Washington and Beijing. In November, Yeonpyeong Island saw the first artillery attack since the end of the Korean War. The Cheonan sinking sat at the starting point of the heightening of peninsular tensions that led to an artillery exchange between North Korea and South Korea.

The Cheonan sinking brought a reprise of friction between Cold War-era camps to Northeast Asia. To begin with, South Korea, the United States, and Japan on one side and North Korea, China, and Russia on the other offered conflicting determinations as to the cause of the sinking. South Korea’s Joint Investigation Group (JIG) announced that the vessel had gone down due to a North Korean torpedo attack. After an initial silence, Washington began actively involving itself in the investigation in late April and assisted with the South Korean government’s announcement.

North Korea, in contrast, strenuously denied its involvement, and China aligned itself along with this. A government source familiar with the Cheonan investigation process recounted, “The Chinese military determined that it was not a North Korean attack based on its own intelligence, and this determination was passed on to the highest leadership level.” Russia, which dispatched its own investigation team to South Korea, concluded that the so-called “No. 1 torpedo” was “merely torpedo debris, and [the Cheonan’s sinking] is presumed to be due to a mine explosion.”
Also the subject of sharp clashing was the strategic political response to and use of the Cheonan incident. For the Barack Obama administration, which had been facing turbulence with the Yukio Hatoyama administration in Japan over the potential removal of a U.S. armed forces base on Okinawa, the Cheonan situation provided a way through the problem. Visiting Japan on May 22, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton recalled the Cheonan, saying that the threat to South Korea was also a threat to Japan. The next day, Hatoyama announced that he was effectively scrapping plans to relocate the USFJ base.

The United States also saw its military influence on South Korea wax further, achieveing a restoration of the “Southern axis” of South Korea, the United States, and Japan as a check against Beijing.

Beijing protested. In particular, it vehemently criticized the U.S.’s introduction of its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington in the West Sea during joint exercises with the South Korean military, and expressed strong suspicions that the U.S. was training to block the Taiwan Strait in the event of an emergency. Distrust and friction built up between Washington and Beijing, and between Seoul and Beijing.

In the process, North Korea and South Korea lost the power to guide the political situation. Seoul announced the “May 24 measures” in response to the Cheonan sinking, which halted all trade and exchange with North Korea except for the Kaesong Industrial Complex. It also engaged in a large-scale naval show of force with the U.S.

One year later, the peninsula finds itself at a crossroads. After carrying on an intense battle of wills for around one year, Washington and Beijing declared a “strategic partnership” at a Jan. 19 summit meeting. The U.S. cautiously began to look for ways to get dialogue going with Pyongyang via the resumption of food aid to North Korea.

With the countries surrounding the peninsula apparently having changed course toward negotiation, the Lee Myung-bak administration is now facing a fork in the road. Will it join in the larger trend, even if it means skirting the Cheonan issue at the risk of protests from domestic North Korea hard-liners, or will it carry on holding out against pressure from the international community to improve its relations with Pyongyang? Analysts say that this choice will determine whether the peninsula proceeds toward peace and stability or conflict and friction.
Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]
____________________________________
See also
Citizens present flowers at the group memorial for sailors in the week leading up to the one-year anniversary of the sinking of the Cheonan, Mar. 24. (Photo by Rhee Jong-chan)

Hankyoreh
Cheonan 1 year later: enduring doubts and unyielding posture
:As the Lee administration released a white paper, scientists continued to question the evidence presented by the JIG
By Kwon Hyuk-chul, Staff Writer
March 25, 2011

“The investigation findings stating that the Cheonan sank due to a CHT-02D torpedo fired by North Korea are a patently confirmed truth, and it is unfortunate that there are some people who are unable to believe this truth.” This has frequent statement from military authorities has continued recently as the one-year anniversary of the sinking of the Cheonan approaches.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: U.N. adopts resolution over N. Korea's human rights abuse

______________________________
* When not the human rights but the human rights issue is abused like the way below, it is the first step to attack the targeted country. Nuclear weapon (or WMD) and human rights issues are what the United States government has made pretexts to atack Iraq and other third world countries as well
_____________________________
Yonhap News
U.N. adopts resolution over N. Korea's human rights abuse

SEOUL, March 24 (Yonhap) -- The U.N. Human Rights Council adopted a resolution on Thursday to express concerns about North Korea's grave and extensive violations of human rights, Seoul's foreign ministry said.

The 47-member inter-governmental body passed a resolution with 'yes' votes from 30 member countries, expressing deep concerns over North Korea's "grave, widespread and systematic" violations of human rights.

Three countries, including China and Russia, were against the resolution, which was tabled by the European Union and Japan, while 11 member countries abstained.

The U.N. rights council renewed the mandate of its special rapporteur on North Korean human rights Marzuki Darusman and called for the North to allow him to visit the communist country. The resolution also urged Pyongyang to guarantee access of humanitarian aid.

North Korea has long been accused of human rights abuses, encompassing holding hundreds of thousands of people in political prison camps and conducting torture and public executions.

Text Fwd: 'A butterfly effect' of Libya and North Korea

Peace Network
'A butterfly effect' of Libya and North Korea
March 11, 2011.
Written by Wooksik Cheong(Representative of Peace Network)

“When the North collapses _ and one day it will, of course _ we’re going to face a problem that we’ve been spared in Libya. You have to bet that the (North Korean) leadership is going to threaten to use its weapons to stay in power. Even if they are bluffing, it’s going to change the entire strategy.”

This is a remark made by a high-ranking official of the Lee Myung-bak administration during an interview with the New York Times on March, 1. “While South Korea is dropping leaflets in North Korea alerting its population to the uprisings in the Middle East, senior South Korean officials acknowledged in interviews last week that should North Korea face a similar uprising, it could use the threat to unleash its arsenal _ which includes six to a dozen nuclear weapons by most estimates _ in an effort to keep neighboring countries from encouraging the government’s ouster” said the official on the condition of anonymity.

This analysis carries a significant implication about current and future situation of the Korean peninsula. Those who have been hawkish toward the North around the Lee Myung-bak administration seem to hope that “butterfly effect of Libya” spreads over North Korea, regarding “North Korea’s sudden change” such as, they classify, death of Kim Jong-il or a large-scale civil uprising as a great opportunity for “Absorbing Unification” (Unification through absorbing North Korea). In the same vein lies the reason why even military authorities and some members of the Grand National Party (the ruling party of the South) all are eager to distribute the leaflets. Moreover, Joint South Korea and the U.S. Military Exercise which began last 28th February is also focusing on making provision for this sudden change of the North.

As emerges this preparation for sudden change of the North in Seoul and Washington, an opposition of Pyongyang is also escalating. It reacted against the discourse by mentioning “a deluge of fire of Seoul” and “a nuclear disaster”. In particular, there increases the possibility that Pyongyang will cling to its nuclear as it faces the turmoil in Libya and Seoul and Washington’s preparation for North Korea’s sudden change. This is because the North Korean authorities, witnessing Qaddafi’s exposure to external military intervention especially by the U.S. and the U.K. after Qaddafi gave up nuclear weapons and missiles, will be convinced of its faith that “they need one decisive blow”.

A Libyan Model and North Korea

December, 2003, the Qaddafi’s administration, with arbitration of the U.K., signed up an agreement with the U.S. Under the terms of the agreement, Qaddafi contributed himself to abandoning weapons of massive destruction (WMD) and the U.S also has lifted economic sanctions and normalized relation with Libya. Believing that so called “Iraq Effect” (an effect that one must meet the U.S.’ attack if it does not voluntarily abandon WMD) brought Libya’s abandonment of WMD, the Bush administration was so encouraged by the agreement and insisted that North Korea and Iran need to follow the “Libyan Model”. However, North Korea and Iran, who were pointed as an axis of evil by Bush, interpreted this as a U.S.’ gesture for “regime change” and rather accelerated development of nuclear capabilities.

Now, the United States, who once referred to the Qaddafi’s administration as the epitome of non-proliferation, struggles to dethrone Qaddafi by all means available. Following economic sanctions such as freezing assets of family of Qaddafi’s, the U.S. is even considering military intervention including No-flight zone and forward deployment of Navy and Air force. While doing so, it sighed with relief given that it successfully had a deal to remove WMD with Qaddafi in 2003. Affirming that there is no question Qaddafi would have used whatever he felt necessary to stay in power including WMD had it failed to remove them, the U.S. believes that the worst nightmare possible had been prevented through the 2003 agreement.

At this point, we can figure out why the U.S. is so enthusiastic in hindering its adversary countries from possessing nuclear weapons and missiles. When the U.S. feels necessity of military intervention, the prime strategic consideration is whether or not the countries have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. On the other hand, it also explains why Pyongyang and Tehran, who are being first targeted even by the Obama administration, keep attempting to possess them.

Reinforcing this analysis, New York Times reported that “the message of the Libyan experience to other countries under pressure to give up their arsenals may not be the one Washington intends” and also reported that “Iran and North Korea, who have often been urged by the West to follow Libya’s example, may conclude that Colonel Qaddafi made a fatal error.” The “fatal error” in this context refers to Qaddafi’s abandonment of WMD.

Policy toward North Korea should not lose prime goal

As most North Korea experts pointed, there is very little likelihood that a large-scale civil uprising will occur in the North as did in the Middle East. Thus, being focused are sudden political changes such as death of Kim Jong-il and social unrest caused by consecutive power succession through three generations. However, a civil uprising for democratization and instability of regime are totally different. For international society, humanitarian interventions are relatively easy in the case of Libya where massive citizens rise for democracy under the threat of massacre by Qaddafi regime. However, should external military forces intervene due to potential political unrest caused by such a thing as death of Kim Jong-il, it is clearly violation of international law and able to trigger another disaster like a total war.

What is the most worrisome situation on the Korean peninsula is a meet of the two sides; first, conservative camps of South Korea and the U.S. which seem to regard democracy wave in the Middle East as an opportunity to overthrow “Dictator Kim Jong-il regime” and second, “Nuclear Deification” of North Korean leaderships wishing to dispel the suspicion and to prevent external military intervention by reinforcing “nuclear deterrent.” When these two movements converges, forming vicious circle, chances are there will be decadence of South Korean democracy and increased probability of the second Korean War, not a democratization of the North or Absorbing Unification.

In short, what is significant at this point is to clear up the principal goals in North Korean policies which have been missing since the Lee Myung-Bak administration. Prevention of Korean War is the priority of the priorities. Thus, not only deterrence of Pyongyang’s provocation but also restraint of behaviors provoking Pyongyang are now necessity. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula also became more important. In order to achieve this denuclearization, required is not a unilateral nuclear abandonment of the North, but corresponding measures such as lifting economic sanctions and building peace system. In addition, what is also needed for stabilization of the peninsula is a special effort for restoration of the relationship of the two Koreas.

It is obvious that these principal goals in policies toward North Korea are incompatible with the current effort to trigger sudden change of the North. Therefore, the Lee Myung-bak administration’s idle and incompetent North Korean policies assuming that “the North will collapse someday” and doing nothing other than promoting the collapse need to be changed urgently.

Text Fwd: U.S. dismisses N. Korea's claim Libya's nuke abandonment led to bombings: State Dept.

Yonhap News
U.S. dismisses N. Korea's claim Libya's nuke abandonment led to bombings: State Dept.
By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Yonhap) -- The United States Tuesday dismissed North Korea's claim that Libya's abandonment of its nuclear weapons programs resulted in the recent bombings of the North African state by the U.S. and its allies and called on the North to abide by its denuclearization pledge for better relations with the U.S.

Mark Toner, State Department spokesman, was reacting to the North Korean Foreign Ministry, which said earlier in the day that the air raids on Libya justify Pyongyang's military-first policy focusing on its nuclear armament as a deterrent against invasion.

"Where they're at today has absolutely no connection with them renouncing their nuclear program or nuclear weapons," Toner said. "It's a good thing that they did because if they had such weapons of mass destruction, and they turn weapons so easily against their own people, then God help us."

After years of negotiations, Muammar Qaddafi announced in 2003 he would abandon his programs for the development of weapons of mass destruction in return for improved ties with and economic assistance from the U.S. and its western allies. Washington normalized ties with Tripoli in 2006.

Toner said the air raids on Libya have nothing to do with Qaddafi's nuclear dismantlement, but with military attacks on civilians.

"Qaddafi made a decision when he turned weapons against his own people and conducted an armed military campaign, and vowed to show no mercy on the several hundred thousand residents of Benghazi," the spokesman said. "The international community came together to take action to stop that humanitarian disaster. For me to say that that's some kind of retribution for giving up nuclear weapons is -- I don't see how the argument holds."

Toner fell short of ensuring Washington will not attack Pyongyang after the latter's denuclearization, if it occurs, just saying, "I'm not going to go there."

"We've made quite clear that North Korea needs to engage in a more constructive way in the region and it needs to live up to its commitments in the joint communique and it needs to denuclearize," he said. "And if it takes those steps, then it can engage with the international community in a more constructive way."

The six-party talks on North Korea's denuclearization have been stalled for more than two years over U.N. sanctions for the North's nuclear and missile tests and most recently Pyongyang's sinking of a South Korean warship and shelling of a border island that killed 50 people last year.

North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and test-fired ballistic missiles three times -- in 1998, 2006 and 2009 -- which were seen as a partial success.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in January that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will pose a threat to the U.S. within five years. Some experts say Pyongyang may have already developed nuclear warheads small enough for missile payloads.

The foreign ministry's statement came as an Austrian scholar predicted the war in Libya will hinder international efforts toward North Korea's nuclear dismantlement.

"The latest developments in Libya will have a strong effect on North Korea," Ruediger Frank, a professor at the University of Vienna, said in a contribution to the Web site "38 North," specializing in North Korean affairs. "The North Koreans must feel alarmed, but also deeply satisfied with themselves. After all, this is at least the third instance in two decades that would seem to offer proof that they did something right while others failed and ultimately paid the price."

Frank was referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union and Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

Mikhail Gorbachev's "foolish belief that his policies to end the arms race and confrontation with the West would be rewarded by respect for the Soviet Union's existence and support for its faltering economy" was betrayed by "Western support of anti-communist governments in its European satellites and independence movements in various former Soviet Republics," the scholar said.

In Iraq, Hussein's compliance with Western control over half of his airspace "did not save Hussein's regime from allegations of hiding weapons of mass destruction, and ultimately from complete annihilation in the Second Gulf War," he said.

North Korea has said that Hussein's failure to secure a nuclear arsenal led to his collapse.

Then-South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, currently U.N. secretary general, visited Tripoli in 2005 and urged Qaddafi to persuade North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to abandon nuclear weapons.

Speaking at the National Press Club here through a video conference from Libya in April, Qaddafi dismissed calls for his government to persuade North Korea and Iran to quit their nuclear weapons programs.

"The problem is that Libya has not been compensated for its good deed," the Libyan leader said.

"The Libyan example is not attractive to them because Libya has not made any big gain, for example, using the nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. So we really don't have much of a strong argument that we can use with Iran or North Korea."

The U.S. and its European allies began aerial attacks on Libya last week under the authority of the U.N. Security Council to protect the lives of civilians. Qaddafi's forces have attacked revolutionaries who took control of the eastern part of the oil-rich North African state.

"In the eyes of the North Korean leadership, all three countries took the economic bait, foolishly disarmed themselves, and once they were defenseless, were mercilessly punished by the West," Frank said. "It requires little imaginative power to see what conclusions will be drawn in Pyongyang. If there was anybody left at all in the elite who would dare try to persuade his leaders to sit down with the West and find a way to denuclearize, he will now be silent. Those who thought that the economic price of the military-first policy was too high will stand corrected. Not yielding an inch on the nuclear question will continue to be the key paradigm of North Korea's foreign policy for the foreseeable future."

Few analysts see the chances of any imminent collapse of the impoverished, nuclear-armed North Korean regime, citing tight control of information, the lack of a civil society, and investment in the status quo by the military and ruling elite.

North Korea has shown no sign of vulnerability despite a chronic economic crisis and severe food shortages.

"When the various uprisings began in North Africa and the Middle East in January 2011, the combination of wishful thinking and a lack of knowledge led some to hope for a similar process to occur in North Korea," Frank said. "Drawing such parallels, however, overlooked the very different domestic situation and the dim chances for a coordinated grass roots movements in the DPRK."

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is North Korea's official name.

dh@yna.co.kr

Text Fwd: U.S. announces six-party talks precondition

'affairs with the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, right, greets Robert Einhorn, U.S. State Department special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, at the Central Government Complex in Seoul, Mar. 2. (Photo by Kim Tae-hyeong) '

Hankyoreh
U.S. announces six-party talks precondition
The U.S. says the U.N. and other countries must recognize N.Korea’s UEP is a violation of Security Council resolutions
Posted on : Mar.11,2011 14:42 KST
By Kwon Tae-ho, Washington Correspondent　
　　
The U.S. announced Wednesday that it would be unable to proceed with a resumption of the six-party talks without addressing North Korea’s uranium enrichment program (UEP).

Robert Einhorn, U.S. State Department coordinator for Iran and North Korea sanctions, met with journalists Wednesday (local time) after attending a U.S. Arms Control Association-sponsored seminar in Washington on sanctions against Iran.

“In order for the talks to resume, the United Nations and international community would have to clearly indicate that the uranium enrichment in Yongbyon and outside of Yongbyon are violations of existing Security Council resolutions and of the September 2005 six-party joint statement,” Einhorn said.

He added, “The North Korean program cannot and should not be legitimized, and clearly establishing the illegality of the UEP is the only sound basis for resuming six-party talks.”

Einhorn also said Washington was awaiting the results of discussions on the UEP issue that are currently under way with the United Nations Security Council.

During a visit to South Korea on Mar. 2, Einhorn said that Seoul and Washington were pursuing a UNSC president’s statement in response to North Korea’s uranium enrichment.

However, when asked whether resolution of the UEP issue was a prerequisite for resuming the six-party talks, Einhorn declined to give a concrete answer, saying that he did not want to talk about the conditions. At the same time, he reiterated, “If the six-party talks are to be promising and successful, it is important to recognize that this enrichment program is a violation of North Korea’s commitment.”

This indicated a determination by the Barack Obama administration that even if the UEP issue is not completely resolved prior to the six-party talks, it should at least be clearly stipulated as a “violation.” The Obama administration has been carefully pushing for dialogue with Pyongyang through the medium of humanitarian aid to the country, which has reportedly been in the throes of a serious food crisis.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

[Translation] The U.S. State Department-backed NED supports 450,000 dollar to the three Anti-NK groups in Korea

* 아래는 통일 뉴스 기사를 번역한 것입니다. (클릭)
* The below is an arbitrary translation of an article in a progressive South Korean media, 'Tongil News'

Tongil News
The NED supports 450,000 dollar to the three Anti-NK groups in Korea
Feb, 24, 201
by Kim Chi-Kwan

The National Endowment Democracy (NED) based on the United States has supported $450,000 to the three anti-North Korea media and organizations in South Korea.

On its Feb. 23 report, the Radio Free Asia, Citing Lynn Lee who is in charge of East Asia, NED, said that “[The NED] has supported the ‘Daily NK,’ an internet media specialized in the NK news, ‘Imjingang Publishing Company’ a magazine published by the underground reporters inside North Korea, and ‘Network for North Korean Human Rights and Democracy’ which is for the improvement of human rights in North Korea, through the decision of its board meeting held last January.”

The total cost that the NED has given to the three groups is $450,000 and the cost that each organization has received is $85,000 to $190,000 that is an increment of $10,000, compared to that of last account year.

The Radio Free Asia said that “There are total 14 organizations of the institutes located in the United States & Korea and the groups of the exiled from the NK, which have received support from the NED in last account year. And it is expected that the numbers of the NK-related institutes that would receive fund through additional decisions by its board meeting will be increased in the future. “ It also said that, “As it has decided the support on the research on the ‘Jangmadang’ in the North Korea’ for the first time, especially in last year’s account, the support for the exiled North Korean groups and research institutes for the NK Jangmadang economy, NK study, human rights improvement and information delivery would be continued this year.”

The National Endowment Democracy(NED) whose connection with the CIA has been raised is a non-profit organization having its headquarter in the Washington D.C. and is supporting democracy-related projects, sponsored by about 1,000 civilian groups in 90 countries in the world, receiving fund from the U.S. State Department.

The Radio Free Asia said that the NED selects its business contents and support targets after reviewing business contents and support targets on the improvement of human rights, delivery of information, and improvement of education & ability in the NK and that the US State Dept has allocated 104,000,000 dollar for the NED in its 2012 budget, which is a little reduced amount from 2011.

...........................................................................
Source from National Endowment Democracy
Baekdu-Halla Association
$30,000
To build the capacity of young North Korean defectors in South Korea and to encourage them to become more engaged on issues related to North Korean human rights and democracy. Baekdu-Halla will organize an online democracy education program and offline seminars, and provide young defectors with opportunities to interact and build networks.

Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights
$150,000
To bring international attention to the human rights situation in North Korea. The Citizens’ Alliance will promote awareness among South Koreans about North Korea and test methods of assisting North Koreans living in South Korea to adjust to citizenship in a democratic society.

The Daily NK
$130,000
To disseminate accurate and timely information about North Korea. The Daily NK will produce an online newspaper serving audiences in South Korea and in the international community. The newspaper will include news and information about North Korean human rights issues as well as developments in North Korean politics and economics.

Database Center for North Korean Human Rights
$80,000
To make publicly available well-organized documentation on human rights conditions in North Korea. The database will organize information from interviews as well as published and unpublished written testimonies. The Center will also publish an annual white paper and special thematic reports in Korean and English, and will carry out individualized data searches upon request for researchers, governments, UN bodies and human-rights advocates.

Free North Korea Radio Station
$150,000
To support the free flow of information in North Korea. Free NK will produce and broadcast a daily radio program to increase the news, information, and independent commentary available to North Korean audiences.

Imjingang Publishing Company
$75,000
To provide a platform for North Korean citizens to share information and opinions about North Korean culture, economics, politics, and other developments. Imjingang will produce a Korean-language quarterly magazine using materials gathered by reporters and distribute copies throughout the Korean peninsula and to Korean-speaking experts in the international community.

InterMedia Survey Institute
$50,000
To promote the free flow of information. InterMedia will conduct survey research documenting various dimensions of the listenership response of international broadcasting in North Korea, and provide non-governmental broadcasters with independent, reliable data about audience behaviors and preferences as an aid to making future programming and formatting decisions.

Network for North Korean Human Rights and Democracy
$75,000
To develop democracy education materials suitable for people raised in repressive environments; and to raise awareness of democratic ideas and values. NKnet will work closely with North Korean citizens and experts to develop and test a multimedia curriculum that is user-friendly for those born and raised in North Korea.

Network for North Korean Human Rights and Democracy
$35,000
To provide a forum in Seoul for discussion of the future of North Korea. NKnet will hold strategy sessions to explore effective means of promoting economic and political liberalization in North Korea.

NK Communications
$175,000
To support the free flow of information into North Korea. NK Communications will produce the North Korea Reform Radio program, providing daily broadcasting of news, information, and commentary designed to encourage the development of independent public opinion inside the country.

North Korea Intellectual Solidarity
$70,000
To facilitate the free flow of information. NKIS will produce a digital magazine containing accurate and balanced news and information and diverse views about major issues in South and North Korea and around the world. This project will be a pilot test to assess the potential impact of this approach.

Open North Korea
$150,000
To support the free flow of information in North Korea. Open North Korea will maintain a radio platform that enables organizations and groups in South Korea and elsewhere to broadcast information and feature programs to North Korean audiences.

Radio Free Chosun
$150,000
To support the free flow of information in North Korea. Radio Free Chosun will broadcast its daily program, providing news and features on the Korean peninsula, to the North Korean public via shortwave radio and will maintain a web-based archive of programming for other interested listeners.

Young Defectors’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights
$30,000
To build the capacity of North Korean defector students in South Korea and to encourage them to become more engaged on issues related to North Korean human rights and democracy. YDA will organize its leadership education program to help equip defector students to serve as bridges between South and North Korea and to take an active part in civic life in a future democratic North Korea.
________________________________________
통일 뉴스(클릭)
NED, 국내 반북단체 3곳 45만 달러 지원 [RFA]
2011년 02월 24일 (목) 14:24:42 김치관 기자

미국 ‘국립민주주의기금(NED)’이 한국의 반북매체.단체 3곳에 45만 달러를 지원했다.

<자유아시아방송(RFA)>는 23일자 보도에서 린 리 NED 동아시아 담당관의 말을 인용, “지난 1월에 열린 이사회의 결정을 통해 북한 뉴스를 전문으로 하는 인터넷 매체 'Daily NK'와 북한 내 지하 기자들이 만드는 잡지 '임진강', 그리고 북한 인권의 개선을 위한 '북한인권시민연합'에 자금을 지원했다”고 전했다.

NED가 이들 3개 단체에 지원한 금액은 총 45만 달러이며, 각 단체가 받은 금액은 8만 5천 달러에서 19만 달러로 지난 회계연도와 비교해 1만 달러가 늘었다는 것.

<자유아시아방송>은 “지난 회계연도에 '국립민주주의기금'의 지원을 받은 미국과 한국 내 기관, 탈북자 단체는 모두 14개로 앞으로도 추가적인 이사회의 결정을 통해 자금을 받는 북한 관련 기관은 더 늘어날 전망”이라며 “특히 지난 회계연도에는 처음으로 북한 장마당에 대한 연구에도 지원을 결정했듯이 올해도 북한의 장마당 경제와 북한 연구, 인권 개선, 정보의 전달 등을 위한 탈북자 단체와 연구 기관에 대한 지원은 계속될 예정”이라고 전했다.

CIA(미 중앙정보국)과의 연루설이 제기돼 온 NED(The National Endowment for Democracy)는 미국 워싱턴에 본부를 둔 미국의 비영리 단체로서 국무부의 자금지원을 받아 전세계 90여개 국에 1,000여 개의 민간단체가 주관하는 민주주의 관련 프로젝트를 지원하고 있다.

<자유아시아방송>은 NED는 1년에 4번의 이사회를 거쳐 북한의 인권개선과 정보의 전달, 교육과 능력 향상 등에 관한 사업 내용과 지원 대상을 검토해 선정하며, 미국 국무부는 최근 발표한 2012년 예산안에서 NED에 관한 항목으로 2011년보다 소폭 감소한 1억 400만 달러를 배정했다고 전했다.

자세한 영문 내역은 기사 참조

Photos Fwd:[SPARK] We oppose submission on the matter of NK uranium enrichment to the U.N. Security Council!

________________________________
Korean language statement (click)
성명서: 제임스 스타인버그 미 국무부 부장관 방한에 즈음한 기자회견
: 북의 우라늄농축 문제 유엔안보리 회부 반대한다! (클릭)
________________________________

* All the image source: Solidarity for Peace And Reunification of Korea, Jan. 26, 2011

Press interview upon the visit by James Steinberg, Deputy Secretary of State of the United States :
We oppose submission on the matter of NK uranium enrichment to the U.N. Security Council!
In front of Foreign Affairs and Trade Department 10: 30 am, Jan. 26, 2011

Start talks on the non-nuclearization of Korean Peninsula and peace agreement!

Text Fwd: Obama, Hu call on N. Korea to stop provocations, abide by denuclearization commitment

Yonhap News
Obama, Hu call on N. Korea to stop provocations, abide by denuclearization commitment
By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, Jan. 19 (Yonhap) -- The United States and China Wednesday called on North Korea to stop provocations and abide by its denuclearization pledge.

Speaking at a joint press conference at the White House with Chinese President Hu Jintao, U.S. President Barack Obama said, "I told President Hu that we appreciated China's role in reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. And we agreed that North Korea must avoid further provocations. We agreed that the paramount goal must be complete denuclearization of the peninsula."

[..]
The dialogue extensively touched upon North Korea, Iran's nuclear ambitions, the Chinese currency yuan's revaluation, human rights and climate change, the leaders said.

Hu later attended a luncheon at the State Department hosted by Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary Hillary Clinton, and visited a new Chinese embassy complex before attending a state dinner at the White House. On Thursday, Hu will visit congressional leaders on Capitol Hill and give a speech at a luncheon meeting with business leaders before leaving for Chicago later in the day.

"North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile program is increasingly a direct threat to the security of the United States and our allies," Obama said.

Obama was apparently referring to remarks by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who said last week that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will pose a threat to the U.S. within five years and urged the North to impose a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing to help revive the six-party nuclear talks.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: N. Korean Army watcher in Colorado expects busy 2011

Parading North Korean troops during a ceremony marking the 65th anniversary of the founding of the country's ruling Workers' Party in October last year. The large portrait hanging on a building in the background is the country's late founding president, Kim Il-Sung.(Yonhap)

Joseph Bermudez, possibly one of the world's top non-Korean experts on North Korea's military. Although North Korea's 1.2-million-strong military is ill-fed, ill-equipped, its troops are amazingly well disciplined, he says.
________________________________

Yonhap News
2011/01/17 09:00 KST
(Yonhap Feature) N. Korean Army watcher in Colorado expects busy 2011

By Andrew Salmon
Contributing Writer

SEOUL, Jan. 17 (Yonhap) -- Such is the Korean Peninsula's global profile that there are overseas experts on all aspects of Korea, from politics to literature, from martial arts to cuisine.

In the mountains of the U.S. state of Colorado, one man has carved a particularly arcane niche: Joseph Bermudez, 56, is possibly the world's top non-Korean expert on the North Korean People's Army, or KPA, which ranks as the world's fifth largest with 1.1 million soldiers.

An analyst for prestigious defense publisher Janes, founder of the KPA Journal and author of books on North Korean special forces and ballistic missiles, Bermudez is a consultant for government agencies in the United States and worldwide on Kim Jong-il's military machine.

So how did a native of middle America become a specialist on the KPA?

"I always had an interest in military history and became friends with a group of people who were military history enthusiasts,”Bermudez said in a telephone interview. "One day, one of those friends who was in government called up and said, 'A major who is being sent to Korea needs some help with a project.'"

As a defense analyst, Bermudez's early specialization was the Middle East and ballistic missiles; the suggested project was an overview of the KPA. However, he was able to assist the major, and he has never looked back.

"Anyone who does anything for more than 25 years gets quite good at it, I assume," he said, adding that he now has a wealth of sources on tap.

"I read everything publicly available and have amassed a large collection of declassified intelligence documents," he said. "I have had an even greater opportunity to meet with officials from around the world concerning the subject and have spoken to North Korean defectors."

[..]

Currently, he is working on histories of North Korean intelligence operations and of the KPA in the Korean War, while updating his work on KPA special forces. He expects to be in Korea in 2011.

"I come to South Korea about once a year," he said. "But I haven't been to the North. I've heard they don't appreciate me much."

Text Fwd: What's Happening on the Korean Peninsula?

* Text forwarded from Steve Zeltzer on Jan. 17, 2011

Korea Policy Institute
What's Happening on the Korean Peninsula?
Marty Hart-Landsberg* January 14, 2011

What's happening on the Korean peninsula? If you read the press or listen to the talking heads, your best guess would be that an insane North Korean regime is willing to risk war to manage its own internal political tensions. This conclusion would be hard to avoid because the media rarely provide any historical context or alternative explanations for North Korean actions.

For example, much has been said about the March 2010 (alleged) North Korean torpedo attack on the Cheonan (a South Korean naval vessel) near Baengnyeong Island, and the November 2010 North Korean artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island (which houses a South Korean military base).

The conventional wisdom is that both attacks were motivated by North Korean elite efforts to smooth the leadership transition underway in their country. The take away: North Korea is an out-of-control country, definitely not to be trusted or engaged in negotiations.

But is that an adequate explanation for these events? Before examining the facts surrounding them, let's introduce a bit of history. Take a look at the map above, which includes both Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong Islands.

The armistice that ended the Korean War fighting established the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) which separates North Korea from South Korea. At that time, the U.S. government unilaterally established another dividing line, one intended to create a sea border between the two Koreas. That border is illustrated on the map by line A, the blue Northern Limit Line (NLL).

As you can see, instead of extending the DMZ westward into the sea, the U.S. line runs northward, limiting North Korea's sea access. The line was drawn this way for two reasons: First, when the fighting stopped, South Korean forces were in control of the islands off the North Korean coast and the U.S. wanted to secure their position. Second, control over those islands enhanced the ability of U.S. forces to monitor and maintain military pressure on North Korea.
North Korea never accepted the NLL. It argued for an alternative border, illustrated by line B, the red West Sea Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Acknowledging the reality of Southern forces on the islands off its coast, North Korea sought recognition for a sea border that went around the islands but otherwise divided the sea by extending the DMZ line.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: Clinton urges China to vigorously implement sanctions on N. Korea

Yonhap News
Clinton urges China to vigorously implement sanctions on N. Korea
2011/01/15 02:04 KST

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on China Friday to faithfully implement sanctions on North Korea, imposed by U.N. resolutions, for the North's nuclear and missile tests in the past years.

In a speech at the State Department ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit here early next week, Clinton said, "Until North Korea demonstrates in concrete ways its intention to keep its commitments, China, along with the international community, must vigorously enforce the sanctions adopted by the Security Council last year."

North Korea will be among major topics when U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Hu for a summit meeting and a state dinner Wednesday, U.S. officials have said, in what is being called the most crucial Sino-U.S. summit in decades due to China's emergence as an economic and military power that will challenge U.S. supremacy.

Other issues high on the agenda include the revaluation of China's yuan currency, human rights, Iran's nuclear ambitions and improving bilateral ties.

[..]

Seoul and Washington insist that Pyongyang apologize for the provocations before any resumption of bilateral or multilateral talks.

"We are building momentum in support of North-South dialogue that respects the legitimate concerns of our South Korean ally and that can set the stage for meaningful talks on implementing North Korea's 2005 commitment to irreversibly end its nuclear program," Clinton said.
China, the North's staunchest ally, has called for an early, unconditional resumption of the six-party talks.

Clinton also expressed concerns over North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities.

"North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs are becoming a direct threat to the United States itself," she said. "So this is not just about peace and stability in Northeast Asia, nor standing with our allies; this is becoming, unfortunately, more of a national security challenge to our own shores."

She was echoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who said in Beijing Tuesday that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will pose a threat to the U.S. within five years. Gates also urged North Korea to impose a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing to help revive the six-party nuclear talks.

The chief U.S. defense official met with South Korean officials in Seoul earlier Friday in the third and last leg of his three-nation tour of Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul.

[..]

Text Fwd: N. Korea's nuke, missiles pose serious threat to U.S.: Mullen

Adm. Milke Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaks to the Foreign Press Club in Washington on Jan. 12. (Yonhap)

Yonhap News
N. Korea's nuke, missiles pose serious threat to U.S.: Mullen
Adm. Milke Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaks to the Foreign Press Club in Washington on Jan. 12. (Yonhap)
Jan. 13, 2011
By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities pose a serious threat not only to Northeast Asia but to the United States amid volatility in Pyongyang over the ongoing process for the third-generation power transition there, the top U.S. military officer said Wednesday.

"This is an evolving threat, not just to the region but to the United States specifically," Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Foreign Press Club.

Mullen was discussing remarks U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates made Tuesday in Beijing that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will pose a threat to the U.S. within five years.

North Korea's "continuing development of nuclear weapons, and their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles" is "becoming a direct threat to the United States," Gates said. "I don't think it's an immediate threat, no. But on the other hand, I don't think it's a five-year threat. I think that North Korea will have developed an intercontinental ballistic missile within that timeframe."

North Korea detonated nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009, and is believed to have several nuclear weapons. Some experts say North Korea could have developed nuclear warheads small enough to be mounted on ballistic missiles with the help of China or Pakistan.

North Korea is said to be behind nuclear and missile proliferation in Iran, Syria, Pakistan and several other countries, as arms sales are considered one of its major sources of revenue. North Korea has for years been under U.N. economic sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests.

North Korea also revealed in November a uranium enrichment plant that could serve as a second way of building nuclear bombs in addition to its existing plutonium program, despite Pyongyang's claims it is producing fuel for power generation.

"It's a really dangerous time," Mullen said. "So the potential provocations could become more and more catastrophic. And that's been a principal point of focus as we look at engaging the leadership in China and others to say this is something we really have to figure out a way to deter in the future."

Mullen warned of further provocations from North Korea.

"If past is prologue there, the succession plan usually shows or generates a series of provocations," he said. "And that has been the case recently."

READ MORE

Text Fwd: North Korea, why not make more serious and clear suggestions?

Kyunghyang Shinmun
North Korea, why not make more serious and clear suggestions?
Posted on : 2010-12-22

Photo caption =
Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, answers to questions from reporters during a press conference held at Beijing Airport after his visit to Pyongyang. Richardson said that North Korea's not having responded to South Korea's recent military drill is a very important progress in that the North has expressed its will to have a dialogue. North Korea conveyed its willingness to Richardson that it will accept inspectors of IAEA. However, this acceptance of inspectors has a different implication from one of the conditions that South Korea, the United States, and Japan put forward as a pre-condition for resumption of 6 party talks. That is, North Korea intends to show that they are not enriching uranium to make nuclear weapons by receiving inspectors; on the contrary, South Korea, US, Japan demand that North Korea accept inspectors to make sure that North Korea promises to stop all nuclear activities including uranium enrichment and to make sure that this promise is kept.
Photo by AP-Yonhap News, Beijing

It was learned that North Korea made two suggestions to Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson who visited the country. Those suggestions were that the North can accept International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors again and ship 12,000 unused nuclear fuel rods overseas.

Those can be construed to be answers from North Korea to demands from South Korea and the United States that the North show the will to denuclearize and put cessation of nuclear development into action in order to resume 6 party talks.

North Korea's response like this is positive in that it wants to show off its denuclearization intention. It is clearly an advanced attitude, given that the North held the position that 6 party talks should be resumed without any precondition.

However, the tense political situation on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea's suggestion for denuclearization do not correspond in that the North's denuclearization gestures were known on the day when South Korea carried out an artillery fire drill at Yeonpyeong Island in response to the North's shelling provocations. Furthermore, it is not sure how serious the North's suggestions are.

Already, the North's plutonium nuclear facility has gotten old, and it has entered into the dismantlement processes according to existing nuclear disablement agreement. In this state, re-discussing shipments of unspent nuclear fuel rods loses half of its significance, which was once broken off during negotiations.

The heart of North Korea's nuclear issue now is uranium enrichment nuclear program, as was shown by the Yeongbyon uranium enrichment facility. But there was no mention of uranium enrichment problem in the North's suggestions. All the more, it is not clear whether IAEA inspectors can look into uranium enrichment facility.

In this way, North Korea's suggestions have a double face. These could be gestures intended to dilute the international atmosphere and trends that criticize and apply sanctions on North Korea; or these could also be a change of attitude to re-discuss North Korea's nuclear issue.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: The United States Can and Should Stop the Escalation

* Text sent from Steve Zeltzer on Dec. 19, 2010
Korea Policy Institute
The United States Can and Should Stop the Escalation
Paul Liem December 18, 2010

In the wake of live artillery exchange between North and South Korea
on November 23, 2010 resulting in the deaths of four South Koreans on
Yeonpyeong Island, the United States and South Korea are planning once
again to conduct live artillery exercises, starting today through
Tuesday, from Yeonpyeong Island, and surrounding areas, in spite of
repeated warnings by Pyongyang that it will again, retaliate.

"Second and third self-defensive blows that cannot be predicted will
be dealt" if the exercises go forward, North Korea warned South Korea
earlier today, according to North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA). "The intensity and range of the firepower will create a
situation more serious than the one on Nov. 23," North Korea's
military said.

Efforts by China and Russia to convince the United States and South
Korea to cancel the live artillery exercises have not borne fruit as
yet. Thus there remains the possibility of an outbreak of fighting in
the disputed waters of the West Sea. The possibility that the fighting
might spread uncontrollably beyond the West Sea cannot be discounted.

The Yeonpyeong Island, and several others in the area, lay just south
of the "Northern Limit Line" (NLL) which follows the west coast of
North Korea just 3 nautical miles from shore. The line, which was
drawn unilaterally by the United States after the Armistice, is not
recognized by North Korea. Since the early 1970s the international
community has recognized 12 nautical miles as the conventional
offshore territorial boundary.

The live artillery drills will take place in South Korean territory,
based on the Northern Limit Line, 3 miles off coast, but within North
Korean territory based on the 12 nautical mile convention. Hence, the
characterization, "disputed waters," often employed to describe the
location of deadly naval clashes in the West Sea which occurred in
1999, 2002, 2009, last March and November.

In their article on the history of the NLL, Bloomberg, 12/17/2010,
Daniel Ten Kate and Peter Green report that U.S. officials believed
that the NLL was "contrary to law." "Then-Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger wrote in a 1975 classified cable that the unilaterally drawn
Northern Limit Line was 'clearly contrary to international law.' Two
years before, the American ambassador said in another cable that many
nations would view South Korea and its U.S. ally as 'in the wrong' if
clashes occurred in disputed areas along the boundary," they reported.

The live artillery drills are widely viewed as military posturing by
the administration of South Korean President, Lee Myung Bak, however
the South Korean armed forces remain under the command of the United
States. Ultimately the finger on the trigger for the planned live
artillery firing, weather permitting, is that of President Barack
Obama. At the same time New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson, is in
Pyongyang reporting that North Korea wishes to restart the six party
talks to denuclearize the Korean peninsula and replace the Korean War
Armistice with a peace treaty. China and Russia are also calling upon
the United States and South Korea to restart diplomacy. After two
years of pursuing a policy of "strategic patience" to contain North
Korea, it appears that President Obama is facing a stark choice
between War and Peace in northeast Asia.

In the event that fighting breaks out on the Korean peninsula we urge
our readers to question efforts to indict North Korea as being solely
responsible for provoking the military clashes in the West Sea. This
is clearly not the case. The U.S. and South Korea are recklessly
pushing tensions on the peninsula to the brink of war as well.
President Obama can and should put a stop to the escalation. We cannot
again, blindfolded, be marched off to war. A good way for readers to
begin learning about the background to recent fighting in the West Sea
would be to read the full Bloomberg article by Kate and Green, and to
study the map of the disputed boundaries in the West Sea that
accompanies their article and which is republished above.

Video Fwd: [Press TV] Arash Zahedi talks to Sara Flounders on US Korea Wargames [프레스 TV] 아래쉬 자헤디, 사라 플라운더스와 한미 전쟁 연습에 대해 말하다

* Video thankfully informed by Steve Zeltzer then Lotus Fong on Dec. 5, 2010

Press TV's Arash Zahedi talks to Sara Flounders on US Korea Wargames

Text Fwd: [Rick Rozoff] N. Korea As Pretext: U.S. Builds Asian Military Alliance Against China, Russia 북한은 구실: 미국, 중국과 러시아에 대항해 아시아 군사 동맹 쌓음

* Image source: same as the link
'USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group'

* Text sent from Rick Rozoff on Dec. 4, 2010

Rick Rozoff blog (also in Stop NATO)
North Korea As Pretext: U.S. Builds Asian Military Alliance Against China And Russia
December 3, 2010
Rick Rozoff

On December 1 the U.S. and its South Korean military ally completed four days of naval maneuvers in the Yellow Sea where China claims a 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

The U.S. dispatched the 97,000-ton USS George Washington nuclear-powered aircraft supercarrier for the exercise, accompanied by a carrier strike group consisting of a guided missile cruiser and three guided missile destroyers. The American deployment included 6,000 sailors and 75 aircraft. South Korea supplied destroyers, corvettes, frigates, support ships, anti-submarine aircraft and an undisclosed amount of military personnel.

The war games, which included live-fire shooting and bombing drills, were the latest in a series of U.S.-led military exercises in South Korea and the seas to its east and west beginning in July of this year:

From July 25-28 the U.S. conducted a joint military exercise with South Korea codenamed Invincible Spirit in the Sea of Japan/East Sea with the involvement of 20 warships including the USS George Washington supercarrier, 200 warplanes including F-22 Raptor stealth fighters and 8,000 troops.

In August the U.S. and South Korea conducted this year’s Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise, the world's largest command and control simulation drill, in the latter country with 30,000 U.S. and 56,000 South Korean troops participating.

In early September Washington and Seoul held an anti-submarine warfare exercise in the Yellow Sea with two U.S. guided missile destroyers and a fast attack submarine and two South Korean destroyers.

Only the August exercise was a routine one, the latest in a series of Ulchi Freedom Guardian maneuvers held over several decades.

On the day the most recent military exercise ended, December 1, it was announced that the U.S. and South Korea will hold another military exercise this month. [1] The following day "South Korea...readied plans for more live-fire drills as a warning to North Korea and scheduled talks with the United States and Japan on dealing with [North Korea]...." [2] The armed forces of the Republic of Korea will begin five days of artillery drills on December 6 in 29 locations, including on border islands in the Yellow Sea.

On the same day Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet with the foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan in Washington, D.C., in a rebuff to China and Russia, which are partners in the six-party talks - along with the U.S., Japan, South Korea and North Korea - that have been held since 2003 after North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This despite China calling for an emergency meeting of representatives to the six-nation negotiations and winning North Korea's agreement to rejoin the long-stalled process. On December 2 Russia announced it was ready to participate in emergency talks with the six-country group.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: [Tim Shorrock] Obama's Only Choice on North Korea Unless He Wants War 오바마의 단 하나 선택, 전쟁을 원하지 않는다면!

* Image source: same as the link

'Barack Obama & Kim Jong Il (Getty Images; AP Photo)'

* Text thankfully forwarded by Steve Zeltzer and Lotus Fong from Dec. 1 to 2, 2010

The Daily Beast
Obama's Only Choice on North Korea
Tim Shorrock
Nov. 24, 2010

As the U.S. dispatches a carrier to the region, experts who have recently visited Pyongyang warn the Obama administration that the only choice to resolve the conflict is direct negotiations.

As the Obama administration dispatches an aircraft carrier to the region, following North Korea’s deadly and unprovoked shelling of South Korea, experts warn that the United States only has one choice in dealing with Kim Jong Il’s regime: direct negotiations.

That’s the message from several American Korea experts who have recently visited the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and talked to its leaders.

Barack Obama & Kim Jong Il (Getty Images; AP Photo) Contrary to what has been advocated by the Pentagon, the Obama administration, and members of the Republican party, these experts say that direct negotiations are the only way to end Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, and eventually move toward a peace agreement to formally end the conflict.

“The only way out of this box is to negotiate,” Leon V. Sigal, the director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York, told The Daily Beast. Sigal, who visited Pyongyang last week with two former State department officials, added: “North Korea is prepared in detail to do things advantageous to the United States that are not impossible to do.”

“I know it’s very hard to talk to these guys, but there’s no other way.”

The Obama administration, however, has made it clear that no talks with the North Korean government of Kim Jong Il are possible until the regime abandons its nuclear weapons program. In the wake of the shelling incident, President Obama announced that U.S. and South Korean forces will hold joint military exercises in the region that will include the aircraft carrier George Washington and other U.S. Navy warships. "We've had an underlying philosophy of not rewarding bad behavior with concessions," a senior administration official told reporters.

In recent days, however, North Korea has opened the door for a possible shift in policy. In their meetings with North Koreans, Sigal and former U.S. officials Joel Wit and Morton Abramowitz were told that Pyongyang is prepared to ship out all of its nuclear fuel rods, the key ingredient for producing weapons-grade plutonium, to a third country in exchange for a U.S. commitment to pledge that it has “no hostile intent” toward the DPRK.

Such a pact could set the stage for reopening the Six Party talks, which were initiated during the Bush administration by the United States and South Korea to end the nuclear standoff. Those talks, which also involve Japan, China, and Russia, have faltered over questions of verification and compliance. They have also been complicated by a series of reckless military actions on the part of North Korea, which is widely considered to be one of the world’s most repressive police states where at least a million people have died from starvation over the last 15 years.

• Leslie H. Gelb: The Next Korean War?North Korea, in turn, has accused Washington and Seoul of reneging on earlier agreements, including a promise to supply energy for North Korea’s moribund economy in return for shutting down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. (It remains closed). Pyongyang was also disappointed when President Obama broke a campaign pledge to talk directly with Pyongyang and, instead, intensified U.S. sanctions.

This week’s news that North Korea has built a new facility to enrich uranium and is building another reactor is a sign that those sanctions have failed, asserted Sigal. Without direct negotiations, he said, North Korea was likely to keep enriching uranium, restart its reactor at Yongbyon, conduct another nuclear test as it did in 2006, and test more missiles. “I know it’s very hard to talk to these guys, but there’s no other way,” he said.

Sigal’s views were supported by the three Americans who were shown North Korea’s new uranium enrichment plant earlier this month. "You have to address the fundamentals of North Korean security," Siegfried Hecker, the former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, told an audience in Washington on Tuesday. Stanford Professors Robert Carlin and John W. Lewis, who accompanied Hecker to North Korea, wrote in The Washington Post that “being realistic about the North makes no moral judgment about its systems or policies.” The United States must start by “accepting the existence of North Korea as it is, a sovereign state with its own interests,” they argued.

READ MORE

Text Fwd: [Jimmy Carter] North Korea's consistent message to the U.S.

* 아래의 국문 기사는 여기 프레시안에서 보실 수 있읍니다. (클릭)

* From the Just Foreign Policy News, November 24, 2010

Washington Post
North Korea's consistent message to the U.S.
By Jimmy Carter
Wednesday, November 24, 2010;

No one can completely understand the motivations of the North Koreans, but it is entirely possible that their recent revelation of their uranium enrichment centrifuges and Pyongyang's shelling of a South Korean island Tuesday are designed to remind the world that they deserve respect in negotiations that will shape their future. Ultimately, the choice for the United States may be between diplomatic niceties and avoiding a catastrophic confrontation.

Dealing effectively with North Korea has long challenged the United States. We know that the state religion of this secretive society is "juche," which means self-reliance and avoidance of domination by others. The North's technological capabilities under conditions of severe sanctions and national poverty are surprising. Efforts to display its military capability through the shelling of Yeongpyeong and weapons tests provoke anger and a desire for retaliation. Meanwhile, our close diplomatic and military ties with South Korea make us compliant with its leaders' policies.

The North has threatened armed conflict before. Nearly eight years ago, I wrote on this page about how in June 1994 President Kim Il Sung expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and proclaimed that spent fuel rods could be reprocessed into plutonium. Kim threatened to destroy Seoul if increasingly severe sanctions were imposed on his nation.

Desiring to resolve the crisis through direct talks with the United States, Kim invited me to Pyongyang to discuss the outstanding issues. With approval from President Bill Clinton, I went, and reported the positive results of these one-on-one discussions to the White House. Direct negotiations ensued in Geneva between a U.S. special envoy and a North Korean delegation, resulting in an "agreed framework" that stopped North Korea's fuel-cell reprocessing and restored IAEA inspection for eight years.

With evidence that Pyongyang was acquiring enriched uranium in violation of the agreed framework, President George W. Bush - who had already declared North Korea part of an "axis of evil" and a potential target - made discussions with North Korea contingent on its complete rejection of a nuclear explosives program and terminated monthly shipments of fuel oil. Subsequently, North Korea expelled nuclear inspectors and resumed reprocessing its fuel rods. It has acquired enough plutonium for perhaps seven nuclear weapons.

Sporadic negotiations over the next few years among North Korea, the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia (the six parties) produced, in September 2005, an agreement that reaffirmed the basic premises of the 1994 accord. Its text included denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a pledge of non-aggression by the United States and steps to evolve a permanent peace agreement to replace the U.S.-North Korean-Chinese cease-fire that has been in effect since July 1953. Unfortunately, no substantive progress has been made since 2005, and the overall situation has been clouded by North Korea's development and testing of nuclear devices and medium- and long-range missiles, and military encounters with South Korea.

North Korea insists on direct talks with the United States. Leaders in Pyongyang consider South Korea's armed forces to be controlled from Washington and maintain that South Korea was not party to the 1953 cease-fire. Since the Clinton administration, our country has negotiated through the six-party approach, largely avoiding substantive bilateral discussions, which would have excluded South Korea.

This past July I was invited to return to Pyongyang to secure the release of an American, Aijalon Gomes, with the proviso that my visit would last long enough for substantive talks with top North Korean officials. They spelled out in detail their desire to develop a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and a permanent cease-fire, based on the 1994 agreements and the terms adopted by the six powers in September 2005. With no authority to mediate any disputes, I relayed this message to the State Department and White House. Chinese leaders indicated support of this bilateral discussion.

North Korean officials have given the same message to other recent American visitors and have permitted access by nuclear experts to an advanced facility for purifying uranium. The same officials had made it clear to me that this array of centrifuges would be "on the table" for discussions with the United States, although uranium purification - a very slow process - was not covered in the 1994 agreements.

Pyongyang has sent a consistent message that during direct talks with the United States, it is ready to conclude an agreement to end its nuclear programs, put them all under IAEA inspection and conclude a permanent peace treaty to replace the "temporary" cease-fire of 1953. We should consider responding to this offer. The unfortunate alternative is for North Koreans to take whatever actions they consider necessary to defend themselves from what they claim to fear most: a military attack supported by the United States, along with efforts to change the political regime.

The writer was the 39th president of the United States.

Texts Fwd: [Update] Some articles on the Yeonpyeongdo incident

Hankyoreh
Tragedy of Yeonpyeong
Posted on : Nov.24,2010 15:16 KST Modified on : Nov.24,2010 15:30 KST

Hankyoreh
Experts cite succession and diplomatic pressure following artillery fire
Analysts concurr that the attack has delt a fatal blow to inter-Korean relations in the short term
Posted on : Nov.24,2010 15:10 KST Modified on : Nov.24,2010 15:32 KST

Hankyoreh
President Lee has changed his position from controlled response to manifold retaliation
Observers say he seems to fear criticisms by conservatives of his weak attitude
Posted on : Nov.24,2010 15:04 KST

Stop NATO
Nato Shows "Deep Concern" Over Korean Conflict
Associated Press
November 23, 2010

[국문 번역] Video & Text Fwd: RT: War hysteria could lead to full-scale conflict on Korean peninsula

* Image source: Bruce Gagnon's Organizing Notes blog, Nov. 23, 2010

______________________________________________
* See also the below blog with 'Attention' remark mentioned

Bruce Gagnon's Organizing Notes blog 브루스 개그논의 조직 노트
Tuesday, November 23, 20102010년 11월 23일
SOUTH KOREA FIRED FIRST SHOTS남한이 처음 발포함

Wednesday, November 24, 20102010년 11월24일
Text Fwd: [nousbases]article: During the provoking ROK-US war exercise, NK fire incident happened today on Nov. 23. Two marines were killed.(click)오늘, 11월23일,자극적인 한미 전쟁 연습 기간 북한 발사 일어남, 해병대 두 명 사망

______________________________________________
* Thanks to Rick Rozoff, StopNATO on Nov. 23, 2010 릭 로조프, 2010년 11월23일 알림

RT 러시아 투데이
War hysteria could lead to full-scale conflict on Korean peninsula
전쟁 히스테리는 한반도를 전면전으로 이끌 수 있음
Published: 23 November, 2010, 17:12
Edited: 23 November, 2010, 22:15
2010년 11월 23일



Reuters Pictures 3 hours ago North Koreans work on the banks of the Yalu River, near the North Korean town of Sinuiju, opposite the Chinese border city of Dandong, November 23, 2010


As tensions between North and South Korea heat up, Russia warns against the danger of escalating aggression.

북한과 남한의 긴장(들)이 뜨거워짐에 따라 러시아는 단계적으로 확대되어 가는 호전성에 대해 경고한다.

Clashes began between North and South Korea on Tuesday morning, as both countries fired artillery shells across their disputed maritime border.

충돌은 화요일 아침 북한과 남한 양쪽 국가가 논쟁의 대상이었던 해상 경계를 마주보고 대포탄을 발사하면서 시작되었다.

South Korea has admitted it was the first to fire the shells. However it says the firing was part of a military drill, not directed at North Korea.

남한은 대포탄을 처음 쏜 것은 자신임을 인정했다. 그러나 남한은 그것이 군사 훈련의 일환아었음을 말하며 북한을 겨냥한 것은 아니었다 말한다.

Earlier Seoul blamed the North for what it called an unprovoked shelling of its island, while Pyongyang claimed the South had violated its maritime border during the military drills.

초기에 평양이 남한이 군사 훈련 동안 자신의 해상 경계를 침해했다 비난한 반면 서울은 북이 까닭없이 포탄을 자신의 섬에 떨어뜨렸다 했었다.

The Russian foreign ministry said the clashes are unacceptable and called on both sides to show restraint to prevent the outbreak of military conflict.

러시아 외교 장관은 그 충돌들이 받아들일 수 없는 것이며 양쪽 편에 군사 분쟁의 발발을 막기 위해 자제를 보일 것을 요청했다.

“What happened deserves condemnation. Those who initiated the shelling must accept responsibility. We insist that both sides must take measures to pacify the situation and prevent similar action in the future. Unfortunately, this is already the third incident of its kind this year. But this time, there’s a colossal danger of the situation descending into military conflict. This must be avoided. Russia has repeatedly warned of the growing tension in the region, and is now counting on both sides to arrive at a suitable conclusion,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

러시아의 외무부 장관 세르게이 라브로프는 “일어난 일은 경멸할 만한 것입니다. 대포를 처음 쏘기 시작한 이들은 책임감을 받아들여야 합니다. 우리는 양쪽 편이 상황을 평화롭게 하고 미래의 유사한 행동을 막을 조치를 취할 것을 주장합니다. 불행히도 이번 일은 올해 그러한 종류로서 세번째 사건입니다. 그러나 이번에는 군사 분쟁으로 전락할 거대한 위험이 존재합니다. 이 일은 피해져야 합니다. 러시아는 이 지역의 증가하는 긴장에 대해 반복적으로 경고했으며 양쪽이 적절한 결론에 도달하길 기대합니다,”라고 말했다.

Pavel Leshakov, director of the International Centre for Korean Studies at Moscow State University, says a full-scale conflict between North and South Korea is unlikely, but the war hysteria that is quickly spreading across the Korean peninsula is a real threat.

모스크바 국립 대학의 한국학 연구 국제 센터 파벨 레샤코프 감독은 북한과 남한 사이 전면전은 일어날 것 같지 않으나 한반도 전체로 빨리 번지고 있는 전쟁 히스테리는 진정 위협이라 말했다.

Leshakov also said there was quite possibly a link between the latest Korean conflict and North Korea’s recent show-off of its new nuclear facility. On November 20, the media published a review by American nuclear experts who describe an industrial-scale uranium enrichment plant in Korea. The report sparked fresh alarm over North Korea’s growing nuclear capability. According to Leshakov, the very fact that Pyongyang decided to show the facility to the United States is an invitation to negotiations.

레샤코프 감독은 최근의 코리아의 갈등과 북한의 최근 새로운 핵 시설 공개 사이에는 꽤 연결이 있을 수 있다 말했다. 11월 20일, 언론은 코리아의 산업적 규모의 우라늄 농축 발전소를 묘사한 미국 핵전문가들의 리뷰를 출판했다. 그 보고서는 북한의 커져가는 핵능력에 대해 새로운 경고를 일으켰다. 레샤코프에 의하면, 평양이 미국에게 시설을 보이기로 결정한 바로 그 사실은 협상들을 위한 자신의 초대를 보여주는 것이다.

“The most important thing now is negotiation between North Korea and the USA. If the USA takes a more cautious and thorough attitude towards problems on the Korean peninsula, the solution could be reached quite simply,” he said.

그는 “현재 가장 중요한 것은 북한과 미국 사이 협상이다. 미국이 한반도 문제들에 관해 좀 더 조심스럽고 철저한 태도를 취하면, 그 해결은 꽤 쉽게 도달할 수 있다.”라고 말했다.

[Video]

Dr Leonid Petrov, lecturer on Korean Studies at Sydney University, said that at the moment South Korea is locked in a dilemma over whether to scrap its own policy under which president [Lee] Myung-bak took power with an election promise to be “pragmatic” with North Korea. According to Petrov this pragmatism did not lead anywhere except to major loss of life, loss of infrastructure and the destruction of border facilities.

시드니 대학 한국학 강사 레오니드 페트로프 박사는 현재 남한은 북한에 대해 “실용적” 일 것을 약속한 선거로 취임한 이명박 대통령 하 정책을 파기할 것인가 말 것인가에 대한 딜렘마에 사로잡혀 있다. 페트로프에 따르면, 이 실용주의는 생명과 하부 구조의 중대한 상실 그리고 [분단선] 경계 시설들 의 파괴를 가져 왔다.

“We are most probably looking at a major negative response from the South Korean population towards its own government on one side and also a big question is the future of the South Korean-American alliance in the long term. Previously the ‘Sunshine policy’ simply created an atmosphere where US troops [were not needed on the Korean peninsula] and there was no necessity for such kind of protection as both sides of the divided country were capable of cooperating,” Petrov said.

페트로프는 “우리는 한 편으론 아마도 남한 국민들로부터 자신의 정부에 대한 주요한 부정적 반응을 아마도 가장 보고 있고 다른 한편으로 커다란 질문 하나는 장기적으로 한미 동맹의 미래이다. 이전에 ‘햇볕 정책’은 단순하게 미국 군대들이 [한반도에 필요하지 않다] 라는 분위기를 만들었고 분단된 국가의 양쪽이 서로 협력할 수 있음에 따라 그러한 종류의 보호같은 것은 필요가 없었다.” 라고 말했다.

“But now South Korea will probably ask for more assistance from the United States, including nuclear weapons. But the United States would probably not allow South Korea to do so, because it will lead to unbalance in the structure of the current non-proliferation system in the world and in this region in particular, because nuclear South Korea would probably cause a domino effect and trigger the ‘nuclerification’ of Taiwan and Japan,” he said.

그는 “그렇지만 현재 남한은 아마도 미국으로부터 핵무기들을 포함한 더 많은 지원을 요청할 것이다. 그러나 미국은 남한이 그렇게 하도록 허락하지 않을 것이다. 왜냐하면 그것은 세계와 특히 이 지역에서 현재 비확산 구조의 불균형으로 끌고 갈 것이고 핵[무장된] 남한은 아마도 도미노 효과를 가져올 것이기 때문이며 대만과 일본의 ‘핵무장’을 가져올 것이기 때문이다.” 라고 말했다.

[video]

­Glyn Ford, former MEP and author of 'North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival', thinks it is unlikely that the Korean confrontation could lead to a third World War, but it could, after a while, lead to a major military conflict.

전 유럽 의회 회원이자 ‘벼랑 가장자리의 북한: 생존을 위한 투쟁’ 의 작가, 글렌 포드는 코리아인들의 대결이 3차 대전으로 갈 수 있을 것 같지 않다 생각하나 좀 있으면 주요 군사 갈등으로 갈 수 있을 거라 생각한다.

“In the sense that certainly in the past, back in the 1990’s, the US was preparing preemptive attacks against the North’s nuclear facilities. We clearly would be provoking something closer to Gulf War III than to World War III. Nevertheless, even that would cause immense damage to the global economy and global security,” he pointed out.

그는 “확실히 과거에, 1990년대, 미국은 북한의 핵 시설들에 선제 공격을 준비하고 있었다. [그것은] 명확히 세계 3차 대전보단 걸프 3차전을 촉발할 수 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 그것조차 세계 경제와 세계 안보에 거대한 위험을 가져올 것이다,” 라고 지적했다.

[video]

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