Text Fwd: U.S. and S.Korea diverge on U.S.-led missile defense system

* Image source: Hankyoreh, same as the below article

Hankyoreh
Posted on : Feb.6,2010 12:02 KST
U.S. and S.Korea diverge on U.S.-led missile defense system:
Experts say S. Korea is withholding complete support for the plan to avoid provoking N.Korea in the midst of negotiating an inter-Korean summit

Members of civic organizations including the Solidarity for Peace and Reunification of Korea, Korea Alliance of Progressive Movements, and Korean Confederation of Trade Unions] hold a demonstration to oppose the U.S.-led missile defense (MD) system that would include South Korea in front of the headquarters of United States Forces Korea (USFK) located in Seoul’s Yongsan district, Feb. 5.

South Korea and the U.S. have been expressing divergent positions over the past few days regarding sensitive foreign policy and national security issues, including provisions for a potential upheaval in North Korea and participation in the U.S.-led missile defense (MD) system. In response to media reports that senior U.S. military officials proposed joint South Korea-U.S. training exercises in preparation for a possible North Korean upheaval, the Defense Ministry denied Friday that the U.S. made any proposal. In addition, after a U.S. Defense Department official said that discussions were taking place over the scope and level of South Korea’s participation in the MD plan, the South Korean Defense Ministry strenuously denied that such discussions were taking place.

The response from the Defense Ministry is exceptional, in that it has generally adhered to an NCND (no confirmation, no denial) approach on sensitive issues of national security and foreign policy. For this reason, some analysts are suggesting that the ministry is attempting to put out the fire to avoid provoking North Korea, in the hopes of making headway with an inter-Korean summit.

Proposed Exercises in preparation for a North Korean Upheaval

It was reported Thursday by certain media outlets that U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen and U.S. Forces Korea Commander Walter Sharp were confirmed to have made a proposal to South Korean authorities to hold joint South Korea-U.S. training exercises in preparation for a possible upheaval in North Korea. Possible scenarios included the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, a military coup, an uprising by North Korean citizens, a large-scale defection situation, natural disasters such as flooding, a hostage incident involving a South Korean national within North Korea at a location such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and the leaking of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear devices.

At a briefing Friday, Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae said, “There is currently no OPLAN 5029 predicting an upheaval in North Korea, and therefore no exercise could be taking place because there are no exercise scenarios.” Won added, “We have also never received any proposal from the U.S. to hold exercises in preparation for a North Korean upheaval.”

Jang Yong-seok, research director at the Institute for Peace Affairs, said that the Defense Ministry’s rush to deny such exercises could be connected with the recent attempts to pursue an inter-Korean summit. North Korea objected strongly in mid-January when it was reported in the media that the South Korean government had drafted an integrated emergency plan in preparation for a North Korean upheaval. Jang said, “It is natural for the government to prepare internally for a North Korean upheaval, but if the related content leaks to the outside, the result is that the foundation for inter-Korean dialogue crumbles and the dialogue itself is repudiated.”

A national security expert asked to remain anonymous said that discussions about a North Korean upheaval “should take place at the working-level, and even then should take place quietly.”

Participation in the Missile Defense Plan

During Friday’s briefing, Won Tae-jae also said, “Claims that South Korea and the U.S. are engaged in discussions on the missile defense plan are contrary to the facts, and there has been no change in South Korea’s position on MD.” Won stuck to the current cautious approach, saying that the issue of South Korea’s participation “needs to be examined in the long term in consideration of all the factors, including the security of the Korean Peninsula and the international situation.” The previous day, Peppino DeBiaso, director of the U.S. Defense Department’s Office of Missile Defense Policy, said that discussions have been taking place on a proper role for South Korea in the missile defense plan within the security structure of the U.S. and South Korea.

While South Korea is interested in a low-level “South Korean” form of missile defense to block the threat of North Korean missiles, the U.S. is asking for its participation in high-level defense targeting long-range missiles, including the threat of those coming from China. The two sides have been unable to bridge their differences on the issue. Conscious of possible Chinese objections, South Korea has not responded readily to U.S. proposals.

A national security expert who asked to remain anonymous said, “The U.S. is asking South Korea to enter the missile defense plan the country devised itself, but it is coming across as if South Korean and U.S. authorities are experiencing discord or differing ideas in the communication process.” The expert added, “Since the missile defense plan and the exercises to prepare for a North Korean upheaval are not likely to be accepted when South Korea is hoping to hold an inter-Korean summit, they have to maintain a strategic ambiguity.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

© 2006 The Hankyoreh Media Company.



* Related blog

http://nobasestorieskorea.blogspot.com/2010/02/text-fwd-united-states-stop-enforcement.html
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Text Fwd: United States, Stop the Enforcement [of South Korea] to Join the MD System!

Text Fwd: Extra U.S. troops not likely to arrive in time in case of N.K. crisis: Gates

Yonhap News
2010/02/04 09:01 KST
Extra U.S. troops not likely to arrive in time in case of N.K. crisis: Gates
By Hwang Doo-hyong

WASHINGTON, Feb. 3 (Yonhap) -- Additional U.S. ground forces may not be able to arrive in South Korea in time in case of an emergency situation in North Korea due to America's heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan, senior U.S. officials said Wednesday.

"We could not get the Army units required for South Korea into South Korea on the time line required by the plan," Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. "That's not to say they wouldn't get there. It's just that they wouldn't get there as quickly because of the commitments that we have in Iraq and Afghanistan. And so certainly initially we would be especially dependent on the Navy and the Air Force."

The United States, however, will be able to send extra ground troops to Korea in time after the completion of the proposed drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq in 2011, Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

"I would only add that, as you look at the time line that you just described -- end of '11, Army's out of -- we're out of Iraq -- it's the beginning of reset, really, for the Army in terms of equipment and actually training," Mullen said. "Ideally, probably a year or two before we're well into that, to be able to do it ... on a time line we choose."

Mullen was responding to a question from Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa), saying that if the U.S. "could not meet our warfare commitments with the Army for, like, (Operational Plan) 5027 in South Korea, but that the Air Force and the Navy and the others could back that up with acceptable risk."

North Korea recently warned of a "sacred war" against South Korea over reports that Seoul had come up with a new Operational Plan (OPLAN) 5029 in case of regime change or any other contingencies in the nuclear-armed communist state.

Talk of such contingency plans abounded last year amid rumors of a power transition to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's third and youngest son Jong-un, 27, after the senior Kim apparently suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other senior U.S. officials have publicly discussed contingency plans for the North, but China, Pyongyang's biggest benefactor, has refused to talk openly with the U.S. about its contingency plans for North Korea in order not to provoke its communist ally.

A report issued by the Council on Foreign Relations last year said that South Korea, the United States and their allies would need to send up to 460,000 troops -- three times more than the number of U.S. troops deployed in Iraq -- to help maintain stability in North Korea in case of its collapse.

The report noted that securing North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads, chemical and biological weapons and long range missiles, should be a top priority.

"Locating, safeguarding, and disposing of materials and stockpiles of the North's estimated six to eight nuclear weapons, four thousand tons of chemical weapons, and any biological weapons, as well as its ballistic missile program, would be a high priority, especially for the United States," it said.

North Korea detonated its second nuclear device in May last year, after an earlier test in 2006, and is believed to possess ballistic missiles capable of reaching western parts of the mainland U.S.

The report also stressed the need for the U.S. to seek "a quiet dialogue" with China "to reduce the risk of misunderstanding and friction in a crisis involving North Korea."

hdh@yna.co.kr

Text fwd: N.Korea issues strong response to reported S.Korean contingency plan

* Image sourece: same as the below link
'North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, left, visits the Jaeryung Mine located in Hwanghae Province in this undated picture released by KCNA, North Korea’s official news agency, on Jan. 4. (KCNA).'

N.Korea issues strong response to reported S.Korean contingency plan:
Experts say the statement is indicative of a struggle between the conciliatory tone of the united front line and military hardline position, which is expected to prevail
Posted on : Jan.16,2010 12:40 KST

North Korea’s National Defense Commission (NDC) issued a statement Friday saying, “If South Korea refuses to issue a sincere apology for creating a contingency plan for countermeasures to prepare for a ‘sudden change’ in North Korea, it will be excluded from all negotiations for improving inter-Korean relations and restoring peace to the Korean peninsula.”

In a statement issued by the commission’s spokesman on the same day, they stated, “The National Defense Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is issuing this statement through its entrusted supreme power.”

This marks the first the commission has issued an official statement through a spokesman since 1998, when it became the supreme power of North Korea. The statement’s tone is expected to have a significant impact on inter-Korean relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In consideration of the statement’s tone, observers say resuming six-party talks may be difficult and that inter-Korean relations, of which North Korea has shown reconciliatory gestures since last August when it sent a North Korea mourning delegation to the funeral of late President Kim Dae-jung, are expected to become colder.

Experts are interpreting this as North Korea’s expression of opposition to participation in six-party talks, since although North Korea had mentioned “negotiations for peace on the Korean peninsula,” which would mean six-party talks. And it would be impossible to reopen the talks without South Korea’s participation.

In addition, experts also anticipate that the proposal for working-level talks to resume tourism to Mt. Kumgang tour will be canceled.

In their statement, North Korea mentioned the “The Emergency Governing Plan for North Korea: Buheung (revival),” referencing a reported contingency plan created by South Korea that details a unilateral course of action South Korea would implement in the event of a sudden change in North Korea. They also said in their statement, “We will also retaliate through a holy war and destroy the base of all parties responsible for the plan including the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House).” North Korea also asserted their dissolution of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) and Unification Ministry, indicating that North Korea plans to cut the unofficial negotiation channel between North Korea and South Korea through the NIS and Unification Ministry.

In response, the South Korean government issued a statement through a spokesperson of the Unification Ministry stating, “It is regrettable that North Korea has acted in a threatening manner based only on an unconfirmed report posted by a media outlet in South Korea.” One media outlet in South Korea recently reported the existence of a plan entitled Buheung.

However, Kim Yeon-cheol, head of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, said, “North Korea’s statement should be interpreted as a comprehensive evaluation of inter-Korean relations by North Korea from last August through now.” Kim expressed his anticipation for inter-Korean relations in saying, “Inter-Korean relations are entering a new tough season.”

Regarding North Korea’s recently mixed attitude, former Unification Minister Chung Sye-hyun said, “Conflict will arise between military authorities and the united front line, which has thus far maintained power on inter-Korean affairs.” Chung, however, also said, “In the end, the military leadership’s hardline policy will win out over the united front line’s conciliatory policy.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

© 2006 The Hankyoreh Media Company.


* Related Korean article

Tongil News

'급변사태계획', 남북관계 돌출변수
북한, 대남태도 달라질까?..후속대화 일정 주목
2010년 01월 17일 (일) 15:18:32 정명진 기자 mjjung@tongilnews.com

Photo Fwd: Abolish the OPLAN 5029!!!

* Makiko Sato (seamesky@sand.ocn.ne.jp) thankfully translated the site below in Japanese. Click here.

* Image source: Reporter, Park Hyun Bum, Tongil News

Tongil News
“OPLAN(Operational Plan) 5029 Is More Serious Choice Than PSI(Proliferation Security Initiative)":
SPARK(Solidarity for Peace And Reunification of Korea), “The Completion of OPLAN 5029 Is the Completion of the Invasion Plan against the North Korea”
Nov. 2, Mon., 2009
Reporter, Park Hyun-Bum (cooldog893@tongilnews.com)


* Related blog

http://nobasestorieskorea.blogspot.com/2009/11/text-fwd-korea-us-complete-plans-to.html
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Text Fwd: Korea, US Complete Plans to Handle NK Collapse

Text Fwd: Korea, US Complete Plans to Handle NK Collapse

* Makiko Sato (seamesky@sand.ocn.ne.jp) thankfully translated the site in Japanese. Click here.

* Image Source: Yonhap News

Korea Times
Korea, US Complete Plans to Handle NK Collapse
Nov.1, 2009

South Korea and the U.S. have completed joint action plans to respond to a regime collapse and other internal emergency situations in North Korea, Yonhap News Agency reported Sunday, quoting a ranking government source.

The so-called "Operational Plan (OPLAN) 5029," drawn after years of bilateral consultation, dictates respective military responses by Seoul and Washington to several types of emergency situation in the communist North _ a civil war, an outflow of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the kidnapping of South Korean citizens, a mass influx of refugees or a natural disaster, the source was quoted as saying.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source also noted that South Korea's military will play a leading role in enforcing OPLAN 5029, with the exception of the elimination of nuclear weapons and related facilities that will be handled by the U.S.

"South Korea and the U.S. had long worked on Concept Plan 5029 to prepare for a regime collapse and other internal emergencies in North Korea. Since its inauguration last year, the Lee Myung-bak government has pushed to convert the concept plan into an operational plan and it was recently completed," the source said.

"If the South Korea-U.S. combined forces intervene in North Korea's internal instabilities, the South Korean military will assume the leading role in consideration of neighboring countries, while the U.S. military will be responsible for the removal of the North's nuclear facilities and weapons."

He noted that South Korea and the U.S. will continue to complement and develop specific details of OPLAN 5029.

The two countries have expressed concern that the outbreak of an internal emergency in North Korea could lead to the transfer of its WMDs and relevant technologies to terrorist groups or other countries.


* Related articles

Hankyoreh
OPLAN 5029 risks ceding South Korean sovereignty to the U.S.:
Analysts say China’s reaction will be unfavorable to South Korea, U.S. 5029 operational plans for intervention in case of possible upheaval in North Korea.
Posted on : Nov.2,2009 12:09 KST

Yonhap News
Seoul, Washington round out plans to handle N. Korean regime collapse:
Posted on 2009/11/01 10:51 KST

StopNATO
U.S., South Korea Plan Armed Intervention In North Korea
(Presstv, Joint US-S. Korea plan to intervene in N. Korea
Sun, 01 Nov 2009)