[국문 번역] Text Fwd: [Bruce Gagnon from India] STONES IN KASHMIR & OBAMA'S ARMS SALE [브루스 개그논, 인디아에서] 카쉬미르의 돌들과 오바마의 무기 판매

Bruce Gagnon blog, Oct. 18, 2010
브루스 개그논 블로그, 2010년 10월 18일
STONES IN KASHMIR & OBAMA'S ARMS SALE
카쉬미르의 돌들과 오바마의 무기 판매

The idea was for me to speak at the Women’s College in Srinagar today but it is closed due to the separatist turmoil in Kashmir. So we checked out of the government guesthouse and moved to the local home of an friend of Rao, a man who is a retired government worker.

원래 오늘 저를 위한 계획은 제가 스리나가르의 여성 대학에서 연설하는 것이었으나 그 대학은 카쉬미르 분리주의자 소요 때문에 폐쇄되었읍니다. 그래서 우리는 정부 내빈 숙박소를 나와 라오의 친구 지방 저택으로 옮겼는데 그 친구는 은퇴한 공무원입니다.

* J. 나라야나 라오는 우주의 무기와 핵을 반대하는 글로벌 넷워크 인도 자문의원으로 은톼한 철도 노동자임. 우주 평화주를 맞아 10월 9일부터 19일까지 브루스 개그논을 인도로 초청, 나그푸르, 보팔, 아그라, 잠무, 스리나가르 등에서 연설 여행을 기획함.

As we drove from the college to the private home they explained to me that everything is closed in Srinagar today. All shops, even the corporate malls that fear they have to comply with protest movement demands, have shuttered their doors and windows.

우리가 대학에서 개인 저택으로 운전할 때 그들은 오늘 스리나가르에서 모든 것이 폐쇄되었다고 설명했읍니다.모든 가게들, 심지어 항의 운동 요구에 따라야 한다고 두려움을 느끼는 기업 소핑몰들조차 문들과 창문들을 닫았읍니다.

The Muslim community is the majority here by about 80%. In Jammu it is about 60%. Thus the entire state is now solidly Muslim and they are demanding “Azadi” or freedom. The Indian government has long ago promised autonomy for this state but has failed to deliver. People have had enough waiting.

무슬림 공동체는 여기서 80%란 대다수를 차지합니다. 잠무에서 그것은 약 60%입니다. 그러므로 [카쉬미르] 주 전체는 현재 탄탄하게 무슬림이며 그들은 “아자디 Azadi” 또는 자유를 요구하고 있읍니다. 인디아 정부는 오래 전에 이 주에 대해 자치권을 약속했으나 그것을 실행하는데 실패했습니다. 사람들은 충분히 기다린 것입니다.

After lunch we loaded into a press car from the Rising Kashmir newspaper and took a long driving tour of the city. We stopped and took a stroll through a beautiful botanical garden, more than 700 years old, that sits at the foot of the jagged mountains that surround the city. As we left the garden I noticed the waxing moon nestled near the top of the mountain range and I told the others that everywhere I go in the world I see the moon. It belongs to everyone I said.

점심 식사 후에 우리는 ‘일어나는 카쉬미르 Rising Kashmir’란 신문사에서 온 보도 차량에 타고 시내를 장시간 드라이브 여행했습니다. 우리는 멈춰 시를 에워싼 들쭉날쭉란 산들 발치에 있는 700년 이상 오래된, 아름다운 식물 정원을 산책했습니다. 우리가 정원을 떠날때 저는 산마루 정상 가까이 편안히 있는, 커지는 달에 주목했고 다른 이들에게 세계 어디를 가도 그 달을 본다고 말했숩니다. 그것은 모든 사람에 속한다고 저는 말했습니다.

Srinagar is one of the most interesting cities I have ever seen. The very old buildings, many of worn wood, have a real character. We drove around the huge Dal Lake and I heard that tourism, which is Kashmir’s biggest industry, is now decimated due to the political unrest. All along the lake are wonderful long wooden houseboats that tourists would normally rent as hotel rooms but they are now largely vacant.

스리나가르는 제가 이제까지 보아왔던 도시들 중 가장 흥미있는 도시들 중의 한 곳입니다. 그 매우 오래된 건물들의 많은 것들은 낡은 목재로 되어 있었고 진짜의 성격을 갖고 있었습니다. 우리는 거대한 달(Dal) 호수 주위를 운전했고 카쉬미르의 가장 큰 산업인 관광이 현재 정치적 동요로 죽어갔다고 들었습니다. 호수 주위를 따라 훌륭하고 길게 생긴 목재 주거 선박들이 놓여져 있었는데 그것들은 관광객들이 보통 호텔방으로 빌리는 것이지만 현재 대개가 텅비었습니다.

Following the driving tour we stopped at the Rising Kashmir newspaper. Little did I know that our host is the father-in-law of the editor of the newspaper. We visited him in his office and talked about the Global Network’s efforts to keep the arms race out of space and the upcoming visit of Obama to India. Syed Rafiuddin Bukhari handed me a recent edition of the paper where he wrote a column about Obama’s trip. In the piece he describes that other countries are in competition with the U.S. over the $10.9 billion weapons deal with India. He wrote, “His visit will be followed by Presidents of France and Russia and before that German foreign minister is scheduled to visit New Delhi on October 18. Intense lobbying for the agreement has been on for many years with all the countries putting weight behind their products, which they believe, would fit in the requirements of Delhi.”

드라이브 여행 이후, 우리는 ‘일어나는 카쉬미르 Rising Kashmir’ 신문사에서 멈췄습니다. 저는 우리의 호스트가 그 신문사 편집자의 장인인 것을 거의 알지 못했었습니다. 우리는 그의 사무실로 그를 방문했고 우주에서의 무기 경쟁을 떼내려는 [우주의 무기와 핵을 반대하는] 글로벌 넷워크의 노력들과 다가올 오바마의 인디아 방문에 대해 이야기 했습니다. 시예드 라피우딘 부카리는 저에게 그가 오바마 여행에 관해 쓴 칼럼난이 단긴 최근 신문 편집을 보여주었읍니다. 그 기사에서 그는 다른 나라들이 인도와의 109억 달러 무기 거래를 가지고 미국과 경쟁 중에 있다 묘사합니다. 그는 “그의 방문은 프랑스와 러시아의 대통령에 이을 것이며 그 전에 독일 외무 장관이 10월 18일 뉴델리를 방문하기로 되어 있다. 모든 나라들이 그들 생산품들을 미는 가운데 협정을 위한 긴장된 로비가 많은 해동안 있었는데 그것들은 그들이 델리의 필요에 맞을 거라고 믿는 것들이다.” 라고 썼습니다.

Bukhari felt that the U.S. was likely to get the weapons deal in the end due to greater political clout. He felt though that the hopes of separatist activists in Kashmir to get Obama involved in the “Azadi” issue was not likely to happen.

부카리는 미국이 더 큰 정치적 영향력 때문에 종국에는 무기 거래에서 이길 것 같다 느꼈습니다. 그럼에도 불구, 그는 오바마가 “아자디(자유)” 이슈에 참여하는 것을 바라는 카쉬미르 분리주의 행동주의자들의 희망들이 실현될 것 같지 않다고 느꼈습니다.

In the Rising Kashmir today an Op-Ed by the title “Listen to the stones” has a line in it worthy of note, “Wounded is an inner state of being in Kashmir.” As I wrote in an earlier post, Indian military forces have killed 111 people as the resistance has grown during recent months.

오늘 ‘일어나는 카쉬미르” 신문의 “돌들을 들어라”라는 제목의 의견난은 "상처받음은 카쉬미르에 있는 것의 내부 상태이다” 라는 주목할 만한 한 줄을 담고 있었습니다. “ 제가 이른 포스트에 쓴 것처럼, 인도 군대는 최근 몇 개월간 저항이 일어남에 따라 111 명의 사람들을 죽였습니다.

The piece also reports, “They [the young stone throwers] are viscerally anti-India but also anti-Pakistan. They are speaking a dogged new language of non-violence but are not above picking up the gun. They threaten to engulf India in a new round of bloody militancy but keep cajoling it not to push them that far. They have a disarming collegiate politeness but are floating on lethal helium of rage. Their talk has an undertow of radicalized Islamic rhetoric, but they are proud of Kashmir’s syncretic traditions. They are uncomfortable being typecast.”

그 기사는 또한 “그 [젊은 돌던지는] 이들은 마음 깊은 곳에서 인도 반대 이나 또한 피키스탄 반대이다. 그들은 비폭력이란 끈덕진 새로운 언어를 말하나 총을 들지 않는 것 그 이상이 아닐 뿐이다. 그들은 피튀기는 투지의 새로운 단계로 인도를 삼키려 위협하나 인도가 그들을 그 정도 까지 몰고 가지는 않도록 인도를 구슬리는 것을 유지한다. 그들은 붙임성있는 대학생다운 정중함을 지니나 분노의 치명적인 헬륨위를 유동하고 있는 것이다. 그들은 급진적 이슬람 수사를 밑에 깔고 있으나 카쉬미르의 혼합주의 전통을 자랑스러워한다. 그들은 판에 박힌 이미지 고정을 불편해 한다.” 라고 썼습니다.

The Indian government has been slow to respond to the growing cries for independence. The Indian right-wing party (BJP) refuses to even consider any change of status for Kashmir. Instead a multi-party commission was just sent from New Delhi to Kashmir to review the situation but their window-dressing proposals were not taken seriously. The money to create 43,000 make-work jobs for Kashmir has just been announced, likely as a strategy to keep the youth off the streets.

인도 정부는 커져가는 독립 외침에 대답하는데 느렸읍니다. 인도 우익 정당(BJP)은 카쉬미르의 지위를 바꾸는 것을 고려하는 것조차 거절합니다. 대신 다수당 위원회가 상황을 검토하기 위해 뉴델리로부터 카쉬미르로 보내졌을 뿐이나 그들의 겉치레적인 제안서들은 진지하게 고려되지 않았읍니다. 카쉬미르의 43,000 직장을 창출하려는 돈은 젊은이들을 거리로부터 떼어내기 위한 전략일 가능성으로 발표되기만 했을 뿐입니다.

Protest leaders have announced a “black day” on October 27, calling for a complete strike in Kashmir.

시위 지도자들은 카쉬미르에서의 완전한 파업을 외치며 10월 27일 “블랙 데이”를 발표했었읍니다.

The Rising Kashmir also carried a news story today entitled “Obama visit: Indian jet deal may create 27,000 jobs in US”. It reads in part:

‘일어나는 카쉬미르’ 는 오늘 또한 “오바마 방문: 인도 제트기, 미국에서 2만 7천 직종 을 창출해낼지 모른다” 라는 제목의 뉴스 이야기를 실었읍니다. 부분을 읽어보면:

Two major fighter jet manufacturing companies – Boeing and Lockheed Martin – are vying for the $10 billion Indian tender; which is expected to be raised by the U.S. officials during the November India visit.

두 주요 전투 제트기 제조 회사들, 보잉과 락히드 마틴은 100억 달러 인도 보급 정비를 위해 경쟁하고 있는데, 미국 관리들의 11월 인도 방문 기간동안 논해질 것으로 예상된다.

“If either jet wins, we estimate that it could bring 27,000 jobs to the U.S.,” Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake told a Baltimore-based think tank, thus indicating the importance the U.S. attaches in bagging such a deal.

남아시아 및 중부 아시아 국무 차관보 로버트 블레이크는 볼티모어 기반 씽크 탱크에
“우리는 어느 제트기가 이기던 그것이 미국에 27,000 직장을 가져올 수 있다 산정한다.”라고 말하면서 그러한 거래를 챙기는 미국의 집착을 나타냈읍니다.

Thus it is clear why Obama is unlikely to intervene in the Kashmir conflict that is a key spark to the already unstable relationship between India and Pakistan. As long as the U.S. keeps arming both sides, as it has done for years, the profits will continue to grow for the American weapons industry and the dangerous trigger for future conflicts in the region will be set.

그러므로 왜 오바마가 인도와 파키스탄간 이미 불안정한 관계의 핵심 불티인 카쉬미르 갈등에 개입하지 않을 것 같은 것이 명확해집니다. 미국이 자국이 몇 년동안 해온 것처럼 양쪽 편을 무장하길 유지하는 한, 미국 무기 회사 산업을 위한 이윤들은 계속 증가할 것이며 그 지역의 미래 갈등을 위한 위험한 자극은 정착될 것입니다.

This is the American global marketing strategy for the U.S. “security export” role in the world under corporate globalization. More weapons – more war – more profits.

이는 기업 세계화 아래 놓인 전 세계에서 “안보 수출” 이란 미국의 역활을 위한 미국의 전지구적 시장 전략입니다. 더 많은 무기들-더 많은 전쟁-더 많은 이윤.

As I continue to read the book by former Indian Naval Chief, Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat, he makes all this even more clear. One important strategy of corporate globalization he reminds the reader is “balkanization.” They did it in Yugoslavia when they broke apart that socialist country by fueling ethnic conflicts. Bhagwat says the global corporate agenda is now the same everywhere, fuel the rage and divide the people against one another. Then sell weapons and steal natural resources and exploit cheap labor as the people fight one another.

제가 전 인도 해군 사령관 비쉬누 바그와트의 책을 계속 읽음에 따라, 그는 이 모든 것을 더욱 명확히 합니다. 기업 세계화의 한 중요한 전략으로 그가 독자들에게 상기시키는 것은 “발카나이제이션 balkanization”입니다. [기업들]은 그것을 유고슬라비아에서 했는데, 민족적 갈등들에 불을 붙이며 그 사회주의 국가를 분열시켰을 때 바로 그것을 행했던 것입니다. 바그와트는 전지구적 기업 안건은 그 밖의 현재 어디에서도 같다고 말합니다. 즉 사람들끼리 서로 대치하도록 분노를 붙이고 분리시키는 것이지요. 그리고 나서 사람들이 서로 싸우는 동안, 무기들을 팔고 천연 자원을 훔치며 값싼 노동력을 착취하는 것이지요.

Bhagwat writes:

바그와트는 씁니다:

Therefore, the big question is whether the Indian military is being nudged to reorient itself to moving away from defending India and Indian interests to such unending, quests as ‘furthering regime changes, democracy, and the smoke-screen, of the global war on terror’, under U.S. auspices.

그러므로 큰 질문은 인도 군대가 미국의 원조아래 ‘테러에 대한 전지구적 전쟁의 정권 교체, 민주주의, 그리고 연막을 더 밀고 가는 것”의 그러한 끝나지 않은 탐구를 위해 인도와 인도의 이익을 방어하는 것에서 벗어나 자신에게 새로운 방향을 제공하도록 주의를 환기하는가에 대한 것이다.

In other words, bring India into the expanding NATO effort to encircle China. The U.S. intends to arm India and Pakistan to the teeth and is mastering the old British Empire dictum of “divide and rule”. It’s a win-win for the U.S. if you think about it. Make lots of profit for the weapons industry; expand the power and influence of the military industrial complex inside the increasingly American “warrior culture” economy, and spur conflict around the globe that then justifies expanded U.S. imperial bases in these countries enabling it to control declining resources and still hold the keys to the global economic engine. A desperate and dangerous strategy indeed.

바꾸어 말하면, 중국을 봉쇄하기 위한 나토의 확장되는 노력에 인도를 끌어들이냐 하는 것입니다. 미국은 인도와 파키스탄이 서로 싸울 준비를 하도록 무장하려 의도하고 있고 오래된 대영제국의 격언인 ”분리와 지배”를 완전 습득하고 있습니다. 그것은 당신이 생각한다면 미국을 위한 윈윈 게임입니다. 무기 산업을 위해 많은 이윤을 만들어 내는 것; 증가하는 미국의 “전사 문화” 경제 내 군산 복합체의 힘과 영향을 확장하는 것, 그리고 지구 주위 갈등에 박차를 가하고 나서 이들 나라내 미국이 감퇴해가는 자원들을 통제하고 아직도 전지구적 경제 엔진의 열쇠를 쥐도록 미제국주의의 기지들을 확장하는 것을 정당화하는 것. 진정 필사적이고 위험한 전략입니다.

Sadly those in Kashmir who dream for Obama’s claimed “hope and change” will find it is not likely in the cards for them. He has bigger fish to fry and the growing conflict here helps justify the sale of more weapons to make his corporate masters even richer.

안타깝게도 오바마가 주장한 “희망과 변화”를 꿈꾸는 카쉬미르의 이들은 그들에게 그것이 가능하지 않음을 알게 될 것 같습니다. [오바마]는 더 큰 꿍꿍이를 안고 있고 이곳의 커져가는 갈등은 그의 기업 지배자들을 더 부유하게 할 무기 판매를 정당화하는데 도울 것입니다.

Bruce K. Gagnon 브루스 개그논
Coordinator
Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space
우주의 무기와 핵을 반대하는 글로벌 넷워크
PO Box 652
Brunswick, ME 04011
(207) 443-9502
globalnet@mindspring.com
www.space4peace.org
http://space4peace.blogspot.com/ (blog)

Text Fwd: [Bruce Gagnon from India] PLANTING SEEDS IN JAMMU & KASHMIR [브루스 개그논, 인디아에서] 잠무와 카쉬미르에 [활동의] 씨앗 심기

Bruce Gagnon blog on Oct. 16, 2010
Saturday, October 16, 2010
PLANTING SEEDS IN JAMMU & KASHMIR

I spoke to 100 people last night at the Jammu Club. They were mostly professional people - doctors, lawyers, professors, engineers, military officers, political leaders, and bank employees (the banks are nationalized in India).

Sitting next to me on the dais was Mohammad Aslam Goni of the National Conference Party who is the former Advocate General for the Jammu & Kashmir state and currently political advisor to the Union Minister of Renewable Resources. I knew he was an important man when he was escorted into the hall by about a dozen men.

Following my talk Goni was asked to respond and the newspaper (one of two that covered the event last night) reported, "Goni expressed his disagreement with the chief guest ..... He [Goni] maintained that China and other neighboring countries have strengthened themselves in the race of defence and in compulsion the Indian government was focusing on defence. He added that Indian government was shaking hand with U.S. government for the safety of the country."

Not reported by the press was Goni's statement that even if satellites had to be destroyed and space junk made space unusable, then it was still worth it as long as India could protect itself from terrorism and outside aggression.

After he finished his remarks and returned to his seat, Goni leaned over and whispered to me, "I had to tell the truth". I shook his hand and whispered back, "Me too."

I actually liked Goni very much. We are of similar ages and I felt he was listening closely to my words. After the talk was over he invited Rao and I to come to his home this morning for tea.

A car has been furnished by a local politician for us while we are in Jammu. Sitting in the front seat has been a machine gun toting policeman. Everywhere you turn in Jammu there are police with guns and road blocks. In recent months there has been much unrest in Kashmir as stone throwing youth and growing members of the Muslim majority population demand independence. India has long promised Kashmir "autonomy" but the public has grown increasingly impatient. Some blame Pakistan for stirring up the youth. So far during this recent turmoil 111 people have been killed by the Indian government forces who have been trying to repress the dissent.

Goni lives behind guarded gates in a beautiful home with lavish gardens. Goni, a lawyer by trade, was waiting outside for us in his garden where we were served mango juice and nuts. He immediately said that he enjoyed the talk the evening before, he had been sick in bed all day with a fever, but had received five phone calls urging him to come so he felt he must do so. During the two and one-half hours we spent at his home were were served a brunch and we discussed the Kashmir situation and U.S. foreign policy.

I asked Goni why India would want to follow a sinking ship (the U.S. military empire). He responded that in this unstable world India must choose between China (who attacked India in 1962 over a border dispute - Rao tells me that some believe that India might have been the one to instigate the trouble) or the United States.

Goni then told us that our peace in space message was prophetic and that he felt his words the night before had to be uttered because they were essentially the official position of the national government. He suggested that India was only interested in defending itself from possible aggression from Pakistan or China.

I reminded Goni, as I had told the audience last night, that it is the U.S. who has been helping Pakistan develop its military capability for many years. I remember back in 1974 while in the Air Force I was stationed in Hawaii under the Air Force Headquarters Command. My job was to maintain the personnel records of Air Force officers assigned throughout the Asian-Pacific region. One day I rifled through all the records of these officers and discovered they all had the same job description - they were assigned as embassy staff in each Asian-Pacific capital and their task was to serve as liaison between the host government and American weapons corporations. In other words they were salesmen for the military industrial complex and funded by the American taxpayers. Prominent among these locations was the U.S. embassy in Pakistan.

I learned alot listening to Goni today and left feeling close to him. Several times he brought up key points from my talk so it was apparent he had heard me and had also reflected on what I had to say. At one point near the end of our meeting I asked him to think about the satellites in space each time he uses his cell phone. If we allow the arms race to expand into space I said, the amount of space debris is likely to destroy the satellites you count on for your phone and your TV.

Tonight we have been invited to the home of the leader of the Jammu Communist Party for dinner.

We were supposed to head north the 300 kilometers to Srinagar early this morning but the invitation from Goni changed those plans. So we will proceed north at 7:00 am tomorrow for more meetings and talks.

Slowly, much like Johnny Appleseed, we are planting knowledge and concern about space issues across India.

Text fwd: Pushing South Asia Toward the Brink

Text Informed by Bruce Gagnon on July 30, 2009

Foreign Policy In Focus
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6295
Pushing South Asia Toward the Brink
By Zia Mian | July 27, 2009


The contradictions and confusions in U.S. policy in South Asia were
on full display during Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's recent
visit to India. U.S. support for India, which centers on making
money, selling weapons, and turning a blind eye to the country's
nuclear weapons, is fatally at odds with U.S. policy and concerns
about Pakistan.

By enabling an India-Pakistan arms race, rather than focusing on
resolving the conflict and helping them make peace, the United States
is driving Pakistan toward the very collapse it fears.

America's New India

In an op-ed in The Times of India just before the start of her visit,
Clinton laid out U.S. interests in India. The first item on Clinton's
list was "the 300 million members of India's burgeoning middle
class," that she identified as "a vast new market and opportunity."

The emerging Indian middle class is large - for comparison, the
current total U.S. population is also about 300 million - and greedy
for a more American lifestyle. But the focus on India as
fundamentally a market for U.S. goods and services, and a source of
cheap labor for U.S. corporations, marks a remarkable shift. The
United States and other western countries have traditionally seen
India as the home of the desperately poor, deserving charity and
needing development. But no more. Clinton's article made no mention
of India's poor, which the World Bank recently estimated as including
over 450 million people living on less than $1.25 a day.

India is also seen as a new emerging power of the 21st century, one
that can be an ally of the United States and help it balance and
contain the rise of China. Under the Bush Administration, in 2004,
the U.S. and India signed an agreement called the "Next Steps in
Strategic Partnership." To make India a fitting strategic partner, a
senior State Department official later explained the U.S."goal is to
help India become a major world power in the 21st century," and left
no doubt what this meant, saying "we understand fully the
implications, including military implications, of that statement."

India is seeking both to modernize and expand its military forces. It
has dramatically increased its military budget, up over 34% alone
this year. India now has the 10th-highest military spending in the
world. It's becoming a major market for U.S. arms sales. U.S. weapons
makers Lockheed Martin and Boeing have already racked up deals worth
billions of dollars. But the real bonanza is still to come. India is
said to be planning to spend as much $55 billion on weapons over the
next five years.

But the big news of the Clinton visit was the announcement of an
India-U.S. Strategic Dialogue. This will include an annual formal
meeting of key officials, co-chaired by the secretary of State and
India's external affairs minister, and including on the U.S. side the
secretaries of Agriculture, Trade, Energy, Education, Finance, Health
and Human Services, Homeland Security, and others. But given the
difference in the power and range of interests of the two states,
this will be no dialogue of equals. The process is intended to align
Indian interests and policies in a wide range of areas with those of
the United States.

Nuclear India

In her press conference with India's minister of external affairs,
Clinton said, "We discussed our common vision of a world without
nuclear weapons and the practical steps that our countries can take
to strengthen the goal of nonproliferation." But there was no mention
here of India's nuclear buildup, or of the United States asking India
to slow down or to end its program. In fact, one would never guess
from Clinton's remarks that India even had a nuclear weapons program.
She seemed interested only in the prospect of U.S. sales of nuclear
reactors to India worth $10 billion or more.

India is one of perhaps only three countries still making material
for new nuclear weapons. The others are Pakistan and Israel (with
North Korea threatening to resume production). India is building a
fast-breeder reactor that is expected to begin operation in 2010 and
is outside International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. It could
increase three- to five-fold India's current capacity to make
plutonium for nuclear weapons.

India seeks to become a major nuclear power. On July 26, it launched
its first nuclear-powered submarine. India plans to deploy several of
these submarines. Last year, it carried out its first successful
underwater launch of a 700 kilometer-range ballistic missile,
Sagarika, intended for the submarine. India joins the United States,
Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China in the club of those
owning such nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. Israel is
believed to have nuclear-armed cruise missiles on diesel powered
submarines.

India is also developing an array of land-based missiles. In May
2008, it tested the 3,500 kilometer-range Agni-III missile, which was
subsequently reported to have been approved for deployment with the
army, and is working on a missile with a range of over 5,000
kilometer. In November 2008, India also tested a 600 kilometer-range
silo-based missile, Shourya. In 2009, India carried out several tests
of its cruise missile, Brahmos, which the army and navy are inducting
into service.

The U.S. silence on India's nuclear weapons and missile programs is
all the more telling, given that it was the Clinton administration
that proposed United Nations Security Council resolution 1172. In
1998, this unanimous Security Council resolution called on India and
Pakistan to "immediately stop their nuclear weapon development
programs, to refrain from the deployment of nuclear weapons, to cease
development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear
weapons, and any further production of fissile material for nuclear
weapons." The Bush administration ignored it. It seems the Obama
administration will too.

Pakistan v. India

Pakistan was noticeable for its near absence from Clinton's agenda in
India. It came up only in the context of the need to fight terrorism.
Forgotten was the brute fact that India and Pakistan are straining
harder than ever in their nuclear and conventional arms race. A
Pakistani diplomat responded to the Clinton visit to India by telling
The Washington Post that "What Hillary is doing there is probably
again going to start an arms race." This race drives Pakistan toward
collapse, the very thing the United States fears.

Pakistan is buying U.S. weapons as fast as it can, some paid for with
U.S. military aid, with arms sales agreements worth over $6 billion
since 2001, including for new F-16 jet-fighters. China, an old ally,
is also supplying the country with jet fighters and other weapons.
Pakistan is also boosting its nuclear program. It's building two new
reactors to make plutonium for nuclear weapons. It continues to test
both ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons.

The principal U.S. concern about Pakistan, aside from the country
falling apart and its nuclear weapons falling into the hands of
Islamists, is the war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan
and in the border areas of Pakistan. It has been telling Pakistan to
focus its military forces and strategic concerns on this battle,
which requires moving more soldiers away from the border with India.
The generals who command Pakistan's army were bound to resist such a
redeployment. They worry about the new U.S.-India strategic
relationship, and what it may mean for them when the war on the
Taliban is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan.

The Pakistani army, which rules the country even when civilians are
in office, will not easily shift its view of India. The army and
those who lead it see the threat from India as their very reason for
being. The army has grown in size, influence, and power, to the point
where it dwarfs all other institutions in society and would lose much
if there was peace with India. But there is a personal dimension as
well. The partition of the subcontinent 62 years ago that created
Pakistan is in the living memory of many who make decisions in
Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf, who was chief of army staff
before he seized power in 1999 and ruled for nine years, was born in
India before partition. General Musharraf, along with the current
chief of army staff, General Kayani, and others in Pakistan's high
command, fought as young officers in the 1971 war against India. The
war ended with Pakistan itself partitioned, as East Pakistan became
the independent state of Bangladesh, with India's help, and 90,000
Pakistani soldiers captured by India as prisoners of war.

As Graham Usher notes in the new issue of the Middle East Report,
before becoming president, Barack Obama seemed to understand that
resolving the conflict between India and Pakistan was critical to
dealing with the problems in Afghanistan and with the Taliban. In
2007, Obama claimed "I will encourage dialogue between Pakistan and
India to work toward resolving their dispute over Kashmir and between
Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve their historic differences and
develop the Pashtun border region. If Pakistan can look toward the
east with greater confidence, it will be less likely to believe that
its interests are best advanced through cooperation with the
Taliban." There is little evidence that this view has yet informed
U.S. policy.

The Reality of Pakistan

In their rush to make money and to preserve American power in the
world by crafting an alliance with India, U.S. policymakers seem to
have averted their eyes from the reality that stares them in the face
in Pakistan. In March 2009, the Director of National Intelligence
summed up the situation in Pakistan:

The government is losing authority in parts of the North-West
Frontier Province and has less control of its semi-autonomous tribal
areas: even in the more developed parts of the country, mounting
economic hardships and frustration over poor governance have given
rise to greater radicalization.Economic hardships are intense, and
the country is now facing a major balance of payments challenge.
Islamabad needs to make painful reforms to improve overall
macroeconomic stability. Pakistan's law-and-order situation is
dismal, affecting even Pakistani elites, and violence between various
sectarian, ethnic, and political groups threatens to escalate.
Pakistan's population is growing rapidly at a rate of about 2 percent
a year, and roughly half of the country's 172 million residents are
illiterate, under the age of 20, and live near or below the poverty
line.

Things have worsened since then. The Taliban is now seeking to escape
U.S. drone attacks and major assaults by the Pakistan army in the
Tribal Areas by taking refuge in the cities. There are already no-go
areas in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, where the Taliban controls
the streets. Meanwhile electricity riots have exploded in cities
across the country, with mobs attacking public buildings, blocking
highways, and damaging trains and buses. Each day seems to bring news
of some new failure of the state to provide basic social services.

The Obama administration believes that an increase in U.S. aid to
Pakistan can help solve the problem. The Kerry-Lugar bill (the
Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act) approved by the Senate in
June would triple economic aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year for
five years. But as the Congressional Research Service noted in its
recent report on Pakistan, the United States has given Pakistan about
$16.5 billion in "direct, overt U.S. aid" up to 2007. More of the
same offers little hope for change.

A basic reordering of U.S. priorities in South Asia is long overdue.
The first principle of U.S. policy in the region should be to do no
more harm. This means it has to stop feeding the fire between India
and Pakistan. Only an end to the South Asian arms race can begin to
undo the structures of fear, hostility, and violence that have
sustained the conflict in the subcontinent for so long. The search
for peace may then have at least a chance of success.


Zia Mian is a physicist with the Program on Science and Global
Security at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International
Affairs at Princeton University and a columnist for Foreign Policy In
Focus.

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