Text Fwd: Asia Pacific Bulletin: A Step Too Far: Why CPGS Is The Wrong Answer to China's Anti-Access Challenge

* Text fwd from Lotus Fong on March 24, 2011

Asia Pacific Bulletin
A Step Too Far: Why CPGS Is The Wrong Answer to China's Anti-Access Challenge
By iskander rehman

In March 1996, the waters of the Taiwan Strait were roiled by Chinese live missile firings and massive military exercises. Washington answered Beijing's blunt demonstration of coercive military diplomacy by promptly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the scene.

This event, which, amongst others, compelled the Chinese leadership to back down in the face of a looming war, will be remembered as a turning point for two reasons, both intimately linked. Firstly, the intense feelings of helplessness and frustration it engendered amongst the Chinese military elite led fresh impetus to its attempts to offset US naval dominance in the WPTO or "Western Pacific Theater of Operations." This was to be accomplished largely through a revamped Assassin's Mace strategy, couched in Maoist language of "active defense," drawing on high-end asymmetric warfare and on the use of highly potent anti-access weapon systems. Secondly, and as a direct consequence, the Taiwan missile crisis can be viewed as the swan song of America's full-spectrum military dominance in the post-Cold War era.

Fifteen years later, the region's tactical environment could hardly be more different. While the US Navy, with its 11 nuclear-propelled carrier groups, still far outstrips any of its rivals in terms of sheer power projection, its current stagnation is a cause for concern. Indeed, the US combat fleet today numbers about 280 ships, in comparison to the peak of 597 reached during the Reagan era. The US submarine fleet has been particularly affected, dwindling from 102 boats in 1991 to merely 53 today. Meanwhile, the Chinese Navy is engaged in a process of unremitting expansion. Already comprised of at least 260 ships, it includes more than 75 principal combatants and 60 submarines. Its submarine flotilla is projected to grow to at least 70 in the next decade. Beijing has combined these vigorous naval efforts with an aggressively missile-centric strategy, which revolves around state-of-the-art supersonic cruise missiles, as well as a rapidly growing stock of conventional ballistic missiles that includes the recently inducted and potentially game-changing anti-ship variant of the DF-21. Indeed, as of now it is highly uncertain whether the US fleet's latest class of Aegis-equipped destroyers would be capable of fending off or neutralizing an advanced ASCM strike, let alone the DF-21C.

These developments have led to much anxiety at the Pentagon. The sudden annihilation of US forward bases in Okinawa and Guam under a missile barrage is a major concern, as is the prospect of US Carrier Groups becoming operationally irrelevant due to their growing vulnerability. This would gravely unsettle the entire regional balance, as the US finds itself gradually locked out of the Asia-Pacific.

Responding to this changing environment, the United States is radically rethinking its doctrine and force posture in the WPTO. The result is a strategy entitled "AirSea Battle: A Point of Departure Operational Concept," first released by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in May 2010. The concept, which is currently being red-teamed and integrated by the US Navy and Air Force, is an attempt to reconcile two hard truths: the relative stagnation of the US naval force level in Asia, along with the great strides China has made in the field of anti-access and area denial. Using the LandAir Battle Concept implemented by the US military in the early 1980s as a template, the AirSea Battle Concept calls for a seamless cooperation between the US Navy and Air Force in order to offset China's prowess in anti-access capabilities. Its successful implementation also hinges upon the revival and prioritization of American long-range weapon programs, such as the plan to acquire a fleet of new-generation stealth strategic bombers, or to develop a long-range carrier-borne attack drone.

The emphasis on long-range strike has led to a heated debate within the Pentagon over whether AirSea Battle should come to encompass Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS). The latter is a new class of weapons, currently under development, that would be capable of reaching any corner of the earth in under an hour with overwhelming accuracy and force. On a tactical level, CPGS offers the tantalizing possibility to strike at hardened targets deep in the heart of China without putting costly assets in harm's way. More generally, the weapon system has also been touted as a means of responding instantly to major threats without having to cross the nuclear threshold. The Obama Administration is particularly wedded to the system, viewing it as a structural component of its nuclear disarmament agenda.

Unfortunately, the path to hell is often paved with good intentions. For while the AirSea Battle Concept provides a thoughtful and pragmatic framework for preserving crisis stability in Asia, its fusion with CPGS would serve the opposite purpose. Indeed, while Chinese writings on asymmetric war are extensive, China's conceptualization of escalation management is alarmingly opaque. Moreover, despite Beijing's strict "no first use" policy, there is much discussion in China over whether early warnings of an apparent nuclear attack on its nuclear assets would justify an immediate nuclear retaliation. The induction of CPGS in the Western Pacific would dangerously blur boundaries in a region where competing forces already abide by doctrines centered on preemptive blinding campaigns, and currently share no institutionalized ground-level military communication mechanisms similar in scope to the Cold-War era. Defenders of the project point to the fact that its distinct trajectory--via a hypersonic glider--and specific storage facilities would help distinguish it to the panicked Chinese observer. The timeframe of less than an hour before impact, however, is not favorable to sober assessments of flight paths. Furthermore, the missile is atmospheric, rather than extra-atmospheric, and its US controller can change its trajectory at the last minute if need be. This complicates even further any real-time assurances to Beijing that the missile is targeted at conventional, rather than at nuclear, assets.

The debate over CPGS is a textbook example of how the lure of tactical advantage can erode grander objectives of strategic stability. While the incorporation of such a capability into the Pentagon's new force posture would offer major advantages on the battlefield, these same benefits would drag in their wake the grim existential threat of misinterpretation and nuclear war. And that risk is something that, regardless of present anxieties and uncertainties, should be left to the past.

About the Author
Iskander Rehman is Research Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy of the German Marshall Fund. He can be contacted by e-mail at irehman@gmfus.org.

Text Fwd: Japan Deploys Troops To East China Sea Island Contra China 일본, 중국 동쪽 해 요나구니 섬에 군대 배치하며 중국과 대립

* Image source: Google (*Virgil.org)

Stop NATO

Radio Netherlands
November 11, 2010
Japan to send troops to remote isle over China fears: media

Tokyo will send around 100 soldiers to a remote Japanese island in the East
China Sea, a report said Thursday, amid growing anxiety over China's naval
activities.

The ground troops will be deployed on Yonaguni island, Japan's westernmost
point, to carry out coastal patrols and surveillance of Chinese naval vessels,
Jiji news agency quoted defence officials as saying.

Tokyo eventually plans to double the number of troops stationed on Yonaguni,
which is roughly 100 kilometres (60 miles) east of Taiwan, the report said.

Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa Thursday stressed the importance of boosting
defence in island areas, including Yonaguni, to a security committee meeting at
the House of Representatives, Jiji reported.

The defence ministry has applied for 30 million yen (365,000 dollars) from next
year's budget for "preparatory research" on the issue, it said.

The Japanese military regularly sends patrol aircraft to the region but has no
permanent monitoring facility on Yonaguni, a remote but populated rocky outcrop.

Increased Chinese naval activity has sparked a defence rethink in which Japan
has mulled sending more forces to its scattered southern islands and away from
Cold War-era bases in the north near Russia.

In an incident in April this year, a large Chinese flotilla approached a group
of disputed islands in the East China Sea and sent out a helicopter that buzzed
Japanese navy ships monitoring their movement.

The area is a frequent flashpoint for troubles between Japan and China.

Ties have been badly strained since Japan arrested a Chinese trawler captain
near the disputed island chain in September, sparking a barrage of protests from
Beijing.
....
© ANP/AFP
===========================
Stop NATO
Blog site
_____________________________________________
* In reference, you may also see:

Bloomberg News
Chinese Missiles Could Close U.S. Bases in Attack, Report Says
By Tony Capaccio - Nov 12, 2010

(* Informed at Defense News Letter)

Text Fwd: Issue of liftup of weapon export ban to be discussed in Japan / GSDFs may be deployed near Taiwan

* Text sent from M on July 25, 2010

'Though major newspapers in Japan never report, but today's local newspaper in my prefecture says

that Japanese government has begun to consider to lift up the ban on exporting weapons

limited only to SM3 Block 2A to the third-party countries. This has been urged by R.Gates since last Oct,

but before /after that, many American ' advisors' to Obama never failed to persuade Tokyo to do so in their visits to Japan.

(Note: In political terms in Japan, ' consider ' nearly means 'to give it go-ahead')

The U.S. wants to export, beginning in 2018, the new interceptor version to be produced under US-Japan joint program,

so it has been urging Japanese governments, old and new, to lift the ban up in order for the U.S. to get ready for

their likely contracts with the third-party buyers. The newspaper says that it is feared that when the ban is lifted up,

infomation may not be disclosed on what third-party countries will buy such interceptors,

thus making weapons import expanded without restraint.

Although 'the 3 principles on weapons export ' is Japan's long cherished peace measure next to Article 9,

it has never become a law, so only cabinet discussionn will be enough to lift it up, our old ruling party has said.

Additionally, our Defense Ministry wants to deploy a small number of its GSDF troops to three minor islands

in Japan's most south-western territory close to Taiwan, called Miyako, Ishigaki, Yonakuni.

http://maps.google.co.jp/maps?hl=ja&ie=UTF-8&tab=wl (Yonakuni, Ishigaki. Miyako is closer to Okinawa than these two.)

As there are now no such military facilities on these islands, this is going to need Diet deliberation.

As part of the aftermath of the Cheonan incident, this would be a grave matter as well and must be provocative to China.

Text Fwd: U.S. Could Supply Taiwan With Tanks, Torpedoes

* Text sent from Rick Rozoff on July 20, 2010

Defense News
Agence France-Presse
July 19, 2010
Taiwan Eyes U.S. Tanks, Torpedoes: Report

TAIPEI: Taiwan plans to buy U.S.-made torpedoes and heavy tanks to boost its defense capabilities despite the thaw in ties between the island and mainland China, it was reported July 19.

President Ma Ying-jeou has ordered the defense ministry to draft a shopping list which includes MK-54 torpedoes, dozens of M1A2 tanks and amphibious landing vehicles, the Liberty Times said.

If acquired, the MK-54s will be used to replace the navy's ageing MK-46s, it said.

The ministry said the procurement list had not yet been finalized.
....
Washington announced in January a weapons package for Taiwan that includes Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters, and equipment for Taiwan's F-16 fleet, but no submarines or new fighter aircraft.

Beijing reacted angrily to the arms deal, saying it would cut military and security contacts with the United States.
===========================
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Blog site

Text Fwd: U.S. Extends Missile Buildup From Poland And Taiwan To Persian Gulf

* Text sent by Rick Rozoff on June 2, 2010

Defense News
Report: Taiwan To Test Missile That Could Reach Beijing
Agence France-Presse
Published: 2 Jun 2010 07:01

TAIPEI - Taiwan is slated to test a missile for the first time that could hit Beijing, a report said Wednesday.

The island's defense ministry immediately denied the report on the medium-range surface-to-surface missile, but said research was being carried out on "various weapons systems."

The missile, designed to hit targets up to 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles) away, will be launched Thursday and Friday from Chiupeng, a tightly-guarded base in southern Taiwan, Taipei-based Next Magazine said.

If successful, the weapons project codenamed "Ching Sheng" would move into mass production stage, according to the usually well-informed magazine.

The defense ministry plans to deploy 150 such missiles, on top of 240 existing cruise missiles, to form one of the island's main deterrents against Chinese attack, it said.

The medium-range missiles could also be used to strike other major Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Chongqing as well as its ballistic missile bases in eastern and southeast China, it said.

"Research and development of various weapons systems have been carried out as scheduled," a defense ministry official told Agence France-Presse, but added that "the content of the report is not true."

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have eased significantly since President Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang party came to power in 2008, pledging to boost trade links and allowing in more Chinese tourists.

Yet Beijing still refuses to renounce the use of force against Taiwan should it declare formal independence, prompting the island to seek more defensive weapons.

The island has governed itself since it split from the mainland in 1949 at the end of a civil war.

The magazine said China had boosted the number of its missiles aimed at the island from 300 in 2001 to 1,400 in 2008.

_______________________________________________________________

U.S. Extends Missile Buildup From Poland And Taiwan To Persian Gulf
Rick Rozoff
February 3, 2010

On January 20 Poland’s Defense Ministry revealed that a U.S. Patriot missile battery previously scheduled to be stationed near the nation’s capital will instead be deployed to a Baltic Sea location 35 miles from Russian territory; on January 29 the White House approved the transfer of 114 Patriot missiles to Taiwan as part of a $6.5 billion arms package that also includes eight warships the receiving nation plans to upgrade for the Aegis Combat System with the capacity for carrying Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) ship-based anti-ballistic missiles.

On January 22 head of the Pentagon’s Central Command General David Petraeus told an audience at the private Institute for the Study of War that two warships equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System “are in the Gulf at all times now.” [1] A news report on the same day remarked “That statement – along with the stationing of other U.S. air defense assets in the region – sends a strong signal to Iran….” [2]

The New York Times reported on January 30 that the U.S. was expediting the deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptor missiles to four Persian Gulf nations – Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – thereby paralleling the combination of sea-based Aegis and land-based Patriot missiles intended for the Taiwan Strait aimed at China and in the Baltic Sea targeting Russia. The Gulf deployments are intended for use against Iran.

“One senior military officer said that General Petraeus had started talking openly about the Patriot deployments about a month ago, when it became increasingly clear that international efforts toward imposing sanctions against Iran faced hurdles….” [3]

READ MORE

Text Fwd: S. Korea, Japan Can Build Nuclear Weapons Quickly

Korea Times
03-18-2010 20:42
S. Korea, Japan Can Build Nuclear Weapons Quickly
By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter

South Korea, like Japan, has the technology to build a nuclear arsenal quickly if it decides to do so, a U.S. defense report said Thursday.

"Several friends or allies of the United States, such as Japan and South Korea, are highly advanced technological states and could quickly build nuclear devices if they chose to do so," said the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010, released on Feb. 18, by the U.S. Joint Forces Command.

The biennial report forecasts possible threats and opportunities for the U.S. military.

The 2008 report categorized South Korea, Taiwan and Japan as three "threshold nuclear states" that have the capability to develop nuclear weapons rapidly, should their political leaders decide to do so.

The latest assessment of South Korea's nuclear capability comes as Seoul and Washington are negotiating an extension of a 1974 agreement that bans South Korea from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel without consent from the United States.

The agreement expires in 2014. South Korea wants to regain the rights to reprocess spent fuel rods by its own will. The country, which won a $20 billion contract in December to build four nuclear reactors in the United Arab Emirates, has long complained that the restrictions on the reprocessing work has blocked its aspirations.

South Korea is recognized globally as a pioneer in the study of the "pyprocessing" method aimed at reprocessing spent fuel without extracting weapons-grade plutonium from it.

The U.S. government fears South Korea's reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel might undermine global nonproliferation efforts, and provoke the North, and then Japan, making the security situation in Northeast Asia more volatile.

The JOE said North Korea is "pursuing nuclear weapons technology and the means to deliver them as well."

The 2008 edition had categorized North Korea as a nuclear power, saying, "The rim of the great Asian continent is already home to five nuclear powers: China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Russia."

Pyongyang conducted its second nuclear test in May last year, after one in 2006, inviting stronger U.N. sanctions. North Korea has boycotted the six-party talks on ending its nuclear weapons programs to protest the imposed international sanctions.

gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr

Text Fwd: U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia

U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia
Rick Rozoff (and also in Stop NATO)
March 4, 2010

So far this year the United States has succeeded in inflaming tensions with China and indefinitely holding up a new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia through its relentless pursuit of global interceptor missile deployments.

On January 29 the White House confirmed the completion of a nearly $6.5 billion weapons transfer to Taiwan which includes 200 advanced Patriot anti-ballistic missiles. Earlier in the same month it was reported that Washington is also to provide Taiwan with eight frigates which Taipei intends to upgrade with the Aegis Combat System that includes the capacity for ship-based Standard Missile-3 interceptors.

The Aegis sea-based component of the expanding U.S. interceptor missile system already includes Japan, South Korea and Australia, and with Taiwan added China would be justified in being apprehensive.

FOR MORE, SEE HERE

[국문 번역]Text Fwd: China circled by chain of US anti-missile systems

* Text sent by Bruce Gagnon on Feb. 22, 2010
브루스 개그논 2월 22일 보냄

Stop NATO
China Daily
China circled by chain of US anti-missile systems
미 대항 미사일 시스템 사슬에 둘러싸인 중국
By Qin Jize and Li Xiaokun (China Daily)
킨 지제와 리 시아오쿤 (차이나 데일리)
Updated: 2010-02-22 07:17
2010년 2월 22일 엎데이트됨

Washington appears determined to surround China with US-built anti-missile systems, military scholars have observed.

군사 과학자들은 워싱턴이 미국 대항 미사일 시스템으로 중국을 봉쇄할 것으로 결심한 것으로 나타난다고 관찰해왔다.

According to US-based Defense News, Taiwan became the fifth global buyer of the Patriot missile defense system last year following Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United Arab Emirates and Germany.

미국에 기반을 둔 국방 뉴스에 따르면 대만은 일본, 한국, 유나이티드 아랍 에미레이츠, 독일에 이어 작년에 5번째로 패트리어트 미사일 방어 시스템 세계 구매자 가 되었다.

Quite a few military experts have noted that Washington's latest proposed weapon deal with Taiwan is the key part of a US strategic encirclement of China in the East Asian region, and that the missiles could soon have a footprint that extends from Japan to the Republic of Korea and Taiwan.

꽤 많은 군사 전문가들이 워싱턴의 대만과의 최근의 제안된 무기 거래가 동아시아 지역에서 중국을 포위하려는 미국 전략의 핵심 부분이며 미사일들이 곧 일본에서 한국, 대만으로 확산되는 흔적들을 남길 거라 주목해왔다.

Air force colonel Dai Xu, a renowned military strategist, wrote in an article released this month that "China is in a crescent-shaped ring of encirclement. The ring begins in Japan, stretches through nations in the South China Sea to India, and ends in Afghanistan. Washington's deployment of anti-missile systems around China's periphery forms a crescent-shaped encirclement".

잘 알려진 군사 전략학자인 육군 대령 다이 슈는 이 달 나온 기사에서 “중국이 초생달 모양 고리로 둘러싸여 있다. 그 고리는 일본에서 시작하여 남중국해, 인도로 뻗어 아프가니스탄에서 끝난다. 중국 주변을 둘러싼 워싱턴의 대항 미사일 시스템 배치는 초생달 모양의 포위를 형성한다” 라고 썼다.

Ni Lexiong, an expert on military affairs with the Shanghai Institute of Political Science and Law, told the Guanghzou Daily yesterday, "The US anti-missile system in China's neighborhood is a replica of its strategy in Eastern Europe against Russia. The Obama administration began to plan for such a system around China after its project in Eastern Europe got suspended".

니 렉송, 상하이 정치 과학과 법 인스티튜트의 군사 사건 전문가는 어제 광조우 데일리에 말했다. “중국 이웃 국가들의 미국 대항 미사일 시스템은 러시아에 대항하는 동유럽에서의 미 전략의 복제이다. 오바마 행정부는 동유럽에서의 프로젝트가 연기된 후 중국 주위의 그러한 시스템을 계획하기 시작했었다

Tang Xiaosong, director of the Center of International Security and Strategy Studies with Guangdong University of Foreign Studies noted that the ring encircling China can also be expanded at any time in other directions. He said that Washington is hoping to sell India and other Southeast Asian countries the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 missile defense system.

국외 연구 광동 대학 국제 안보 전략 연구소 감독인 탕 지아오송은 중국을 에워싼 고리가 또한 다른 방향들로 아무때고 확산될 수 있음을 주목했다. 그는 워싱턴이 인도와 다른 남아시아 국가들에게 Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 미사일 방어 시스템을 팔려 원하고 있다 말했다.

Analysts say that China is closely monitoring US-India missile defense cooperation since any integration of India into the US global missile defense system, would profoundly affect China's security.

분석가들은 중국이 인도의 어떠한 미국의 지구 미사일 방어 시스템 내 통합도 중국의 안보에 심오하게 영향을 줄 것이기에 미국-인도 미사일 방어 협력을 면밀히 주시하고 있다 말한다.

However, according to former Chinese Ambassador to India Pei Yuanying, India is unlikely to be part of any such US scheme against China.

그러나 인도의 전 중국 대사 페이 유아닝 에 따르면 인도는 중국에 대항하는 미국 계획의 일부가 될 것 같지 않다.

"New Delhi needs to develop relations with the US, but it wants to be an independent international power on the international arena," he said.

“뉴 델리는 미국과의 관계 개발을 필요로 합니다. 그러나 인도는 국제 무대에서 독립적인 국제 세력이 되길 원합니다,” 라고 그는 말했다.

Pei said it was necessary to take multiple aspects of China-US relations into consideration. "The US has followed the policy of engagement plus containment with China for a long time and that overall policy will not change during Obama's term," he said.

페이는 중-미 관계들의 많은 단면들을 고려하는 것이 필요하다 말했다. “ 미국은 오랫동안 중국에 대해 친분과 함께 봉쇄 정책을 따랐으며 그 전체적인 정책은 오바마 기간동안 바뀌지 않을 것입니다.” 라고 그는 말했다.

Defense News quoted John Holly, Lockheed's vice president of Missile Defense Systems as saying the outlook for the missile defense market remains sound.

국방 뉴스는 미사일 방어망 시장 외양이 건강히 남을 거라는 존 할리, 락히드 미사일 방어 시스템 부통령의 말을 인용했다.

Pointing to missile programs in Pyongyang, Teheran, Moscow and Beijing, Holly said "the world is not a very safe world and it is incumbent upon us in the industry to provide (the Pentagon) with the best capabilities."

평양, 테헤란, 모스크바, 베이징의 미사일 프로그램을 지적하면서, 할리는 “세계는 매우 안전한 세계가 아니며 산업체의 우리가 (국방부에) 최고 능력을 제공하는 것은 우리의 의무이다. “

Beijing has frequently criticized US missile-defense development and has been making efforts to restrict missile defenses through the United Nations forums.

베이징은 종종 미국 미사일 방어 개발을 비판했으며 유엔 포럼등을 통해 미사일 방어를 억제하려는 노력을 해왔다.

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told a UN disarmament conference in August in Geneva that "countries should neither seek for absolute strategic predominance nor develop missile-defense systems that undermine global strategic stability."

외무 장관인 양 지에치는 제네바에서 8월에 있었던 유엔 비무장 회담에서 “국가들은 전지구적 전략 안정성을 손상시키는 절대적 전략적 지배를 구하려 하거나 미사일 방어 시스템을 개발해선 안된다.

(China Daily 02/22/2010 page7)
(차이나 데일리, 2010년 2월 22일 )


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Text Fwd: After U.S. Arms Sales, Taiwan To Hold Large-Scale War Games

* Image source: AFP, Google

Rick Rozoff on Feb. 11, 2010

Google (and Stop NATO)
Agence France-Presse
February 10, 2010

Taiwan to hold biggest war games in over a year

-The announcement of the exercise comes shortly after renewed tension between China and the United States over a US decision to sell 6.4 billion dollars worth of arms to Taiwan.

TAIPEI: Taiwan plans its biggest war games in over a year, the defence ministry said Wednesday, amid simmering tensions over US arms sales to the island which China claims as its own.

The military exercises, codenamed "Han Kuang No 26", will take place in April and involve units from the army, the navy and the air force, a defence ministry official told AFP.

"Among the scenarios, we'll test what would happen if the enemy were to invade Taiwan and how we would seek to nip it in the bud," he said, on condition of anonymity.

He said special emphasis would be placed on "asymmetrical warfare", in which a small force seeks to use special advantages to overcome a larger opponent, but he declined to give specific details.

The announcement of the exercise comes shortly after renewed tension between China and the United States over a US decision to sell 6.4 billion dollars worth of arms to Taiwan.

The island last held similar military manoeuvres in December 2008, but only computerised "Han Kuang" war games were held last year.
....
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Text Fwd: Washington's Arms Deal With Taiwan Threatens US-China Relations

* Image source: The Hankyoreh newspaper, Korea on Feb. 1, 2010 made the headline of the worsened relationship between the China and United States due to the U.S.' arms sale to Taiwan

The headline title says, “China, Totally Poses the Military Exchange with the United States:
[China] Strongly Protests of the Arms Sale to Taiwan.. The Relationship Between the U.S. and China Becomes Suddenly Frozen.”

The subtitle under the photo describes the S-70, a submarine based attack helicopter, imported by Taiwan from the United States(photo resource: Gao Shoong, AFP)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Stop NATO

Washington's Arms Deal With Taiwan Threatens US-China Relations

Deutsche Welle
February 1, 2010
Washington's arms deal with Taiwan threatens US-China relations

-"Washington reaches out one hand to beg for Beijing's support in Afghanistan, Korea and for chasing pirates in the Indian Ocean. But with the other, the US continues to provide military aid to Taiwan and key allies in the Pacific. As long as the American stick to their military presence in China's periphery, they should not expect China to behave as a partner." -"America also continues to see the Taiwan Strait as its first line of defence. In many ways, support for Taiwan is a matter of demonstrating that the US is still a resident military power in Asia...."

A $6.4-billion (4.6-billion euros) arms deal between the United States and
Taiwan has enraged China and threatens to endanger cooperation between
Washington and Beijing on key international and regional issues.

The Pentagon's approval last week of the sale of Patriot missiles, Black Hawk
helicopters, mine-hunting ships and other weaponry to Taiwan prompted China's
state-run media to accuse the US of "arrogance" and "double standards."

The China Daily newspaper, run by the People's Daily, the Communist Party's
propaganda mouthpiece, said that the US move "exposes the Americans' usage of
double standards and hypocrisy on major issues related to China's core
interests."

"It's time the US was made to feel the heat for the continuing arms sales to
Taiwan," said the newspaper.

Beijing's response has been just as furious, with the Chinese government issuing
threats that US companies involved in the deal, including aircraft manufacturing
giant Boeing, would be hit with sanctions and that military and security
contacts with Washington would be suspended.

Sino-US relations under pressure

China warned the United States that the arms deal could do "serious harm" to
relations between the two powers.

"In the short term this deal is going to have a larger impact on the Sino-US
ties than on the Cross-Straits relations," Jonathan Holslag, an expert on
China's foreign policy and regional security in Asia at the Brussels Institute
for Contemporary China Studies (BICCS), told Deutsche Welle. "Beijing does not
want to sever the current rapprochement with Taipei."

Dr. Gudrun Wacker from the Asia Division at the German Institute for
International and Security Affairs believes that the arms deal with Taiwan is
only one of the problems currently dogging Sino-US ties.

"US arms sales to Taiwan are not the only issue straining US-China relations,"
she told Deutsche Welle. "To mention only two points: the conflict with Google
and over censorship of the Internet and a possible meeting of President Obama
with the Dalai Lama in the near future. President Obama's offer of broad-based
cooperation with China on bilateral and global issues has so far not brought
about the response from China which the US has hoped for. With its growing
economic and political weight, there might be more assertive behavior from the
Chinese side."

Obama's hopes of Chinese help begin to fade

The fiery rhetoric from China over the weekend could dash Washington's hopes of
securing Beijing's help in curbing the nuclear programs of Iran and China's ally
North Korea while further destabilizing efforts to develop peaceful ties between
Beijing and Taiwan.

While the United States has been pushing for stronger sanctions against Iran,
China has repeatedly rejected this approach in favor of diplomacy as the only
way to resolve the long-running dispute.

"China obviously blames Washington's ambivalence," Holslag added. "Washington
reaches out one hand to beg for Beijing's support in Afghanistan, Korea and for
chasing pirates in the Indian Ocean. But with the other, the US continues to
provide military aid to Taiwan and key allies in the Pacific. As long as the
American stick to their military presence in China's periphery, they should not
expect China to behave as a partner."

"It is too early to tell whether this will have an effect of China's cooperation
on the issues of North Korea and Iran," Gudrun Wacker said. "China maintains
good relations with both countries - North Korea is a traditional ally and Iran
is an important partner for energy supply. With respect to North Korea, China is
interested in a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and in preventing the collapse of
North Korea."

"On Iran, China has always argued in favor of a diplomatic solution and has been
reluctant to support stronger sanctions against Tehran."

But what could be more damaging is the potential deterioration in China's will
to find a peaceful solution to the Taiwan situation.

China's relations with Taiwan under review

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since Mao Zedong's forces
won the Chinese civil war in 1949. China has threatened to attack if Taiwan -
regarded as a renegade province by Beijing - tries to formalize its de facto
independence. Despite recognizing Taiwan as part of China since 1979, the United
States remains Taiwan's biggest ally and is obliged by the 1979 Taiwan Relations
Act to sell the island weapons it needs to defend itself.

"The baseline is still that China will use force in case Taiwan claims
independence," said Holslag. "Beijing sees the current pro-China administration
in Taipei as a unique opportunity to draw the island into its orbit. But if both
sides fail to reach consensus on the terms of closer economic cooperation or the
political status of Taiwan, a next election might entirely alter the atmosphere
and bring China and Taiwan back to the trenches."

"But indeed, America also continues to see the Taiwan Strait as its first line
of defence. In many ways, support for Taiwan is a matter of demonstrating that
the US is still a resident military power in Asia," Holslag added.
....
Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge
===========================
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Text Fwd: U.S. not stopping arms sales to Taiwan: Military

* Text Fwd from Rick Rozoff (also in StopNATO)
Taiwan News
January 4, 2010
U.S. not stopping arms sales to Taiwan: Military

TAIPEI: The Ministry of National Defense denied media reports Monday that the United States was stopping plans to sell military hardware to Taiwan.

Not only the sale of advanced F-16 C/D jets and Black Hawk helicopters had been put off, but even the delivery of parts worth US$50 million was stalling, the Chinese-language Apple Daily said. If the military did not receive those parts by May or June, some of its most sophisticated weapons systems would be difficult to use, according to the paper.

The ministry rejected the reports, saying it had received no such notification from Washington. All military deals worth more than US$50 million needed the authorization of Congress, the ministry added.

Ruling Kuomintang lawmaker Lin Yu-fang said that last week’s decision by the Legislative Yuan to take measures against the imports of potentially risky U.S. beef products had provided State Department opponents of arms sales to Taiwan with an excuse to step up their obstruction.

On the opposite side, the Washington Post reported Sunday that the Obama Administration would soon announce the sale to Taiwan of a package worth billions of U.S. dollars including the Black Hawk helicopters, anti-missile systems and plans for diesel-powered submarines in a move likely to anger China.

In combination with an eventual meeting with the Dalai Lama later this month, the weapons announcement might lead to a strong reaction from Beijing, the paper said.

China might decide to cancel military exchanges with the U.S. or keep its President Hu Jintao away from a nuclear security summit in April, the Washington Post said.
....

Stop NATO

Text Fwd: Trade-Off For Missiles: U.S. Demands Taiwan Aid For Afghan War

StopNATO
Press TV
December 27, 2009
'US asks for Taiwan support in Afghanistan'

Following a recent US-Taiwan military deal, the Obama administration has
demanded that Taiwan provide non-military aid for troops in Afghanistan.

Washington made the request through unofficial channels, the China Times daily
cited an unnamed military source from Taiwan on Sunday.

The US wants Taiwan to provide medical or engineering assistance to US troops in
Afghanistan that will be increased, according to the source.

A National Security Council official refused to confirm or deny the newspaper
report.

This week a US military firm signed a 1.1 billion dollar contract with Taiwan to
upgrade its Patriot missile systems.

Taiwan's defense ministry announced that the contract included short-range
ballistic and cruise missiles.

Talks on the contract began in 2007, when the Pentagon announced that it would
allow Taiwan to upgrade its missile systems.

China has criticized the deal, saying it is in violation of US commitment to
reduce weapons delivery to Taiwan, which is recognized by only 23 countries.

China and Taiwan have had separate governments since the end of the Chinese
civil war in 1949. Beijing still regards the island as part of its territory.

Text Fwd: Taiwan: Raytheon Gets $1.1 Billion Advanced Patriot Missile Order

Text Fwd fro Rick Rozoff (StopNATO) on Dec. 24, 2009

Defense News
December 23, 2009
Raytheon Gets $1.1B Patriot Missile Systems Order From Taiwan
By ANTONIE BOESSENKOOL

-Configuration 3 is Raytheon's most advanced Patriot system and allows the use of Lockheed Martin's Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles Raytheon's Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) missiles and allows missile launchers to be placed miles in front of the radar of the system, rather than right next to the radar as in earlier Patriot systems.
-"We've been in Taiwan for 40 years. We are embedded (there) and are honored that they continue to trust Raytheon with the defense of their country."

Raytheon received a $1.1 billion order from Taiwan for new Patriot missile systems, Raytheon said Dec. 23.

The order for the four new Patriot fire units, made as a Foreign Military Sale, is a $966 million contract for ground-system hardware and a $134 million contract for spares. It will include new advances in technology, improved man-machine interface and reduced life-cycle costs, Raytheon said.

Raytheon already won smaller contracts for Taiwan in January 2009 and in 2008 for upgrades to the Patriot systems the country already had. Those contracts were to upgrade the systems to Configuration 3, the same upgrade the company is completing for the U.S. Army.

Configuration 3 is Raytheon's most advanced Patriot system and allows the use of Lockheed Martin's Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles Raytheon's Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) missiles and allows missile launchers to be placed miles in front of the radar of the system, rather than right next to the radar as in earlier Patriot systems.

The four new systems under the latest contract will be built as Configuration 3 systems, said Dan Smith, Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems president.

"We've been in Taiwan for 40 years," Smith said. "We are embedded (there) and are honored that they continue to trust Raytheon with the defense of their country."

Twelve countries, including the U.S., are Patriot system customers. Raytheon is in discussions with customer countries that haven't yet upgraded to the Configuration-3 status, like Saudi Arabia, and is looking at adding new customers, like Turkey, which currently has a competition going for an air and missile defense system.

"With the countries that have not yet upgraded to the Config 3 baseline, we are in discussions with those countries, along with the U.S. Army, in terms of getting their plans in order to upgrade to the baseline for all nations," Smith said.

Raytheon, based in Tewksbury, Mass., is the prime contractor for Patriot air and missile defense systems and system integrator for PAC-3 missiles.
===========================
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[국문 번역] Text Fwd: Exclusive: Obama eyes arms sales to Taiwan

* Image source: same as the article below

* 국문 번역은 마우스를 내려가 밑에를 보실 것

* Informed in the Defense News
Reuters
Exclusive: Obama eyes arms sales to Taiwan
Wed, Dec 9 2009
By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration is moving toward possible new arms sales to Taiwan, including design work on diesel-electric submarines, a State Department official told Reuters on Wednesday.

China strongly opposes arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade province, as interference in its domestic affairs. New submarines could help challenge any Chinese seaborne assault on the self-governing island, which Beijing reserves the right to take by force.

Also progressing toward notification to the U.S. Congress is the sale to Taiwan of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, said Robert Kovac, acting deputy assistant secretary of state for defense trade.

In addition, the Obama administration is weighing more sales to Taiwan of Patriot "Advanced Capability" missiles known as PAC-3 as well as an operations deal for the "Po Sheng" (Broad Victory) command and control program, Kovac said.

"All of those things are going on," he said during a break in testimony to a House of Representatives Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing on U.S. aerospace exports.

Asked whether "going on" meant advancing toward notification to Congress as a prelude to any sale, Kovac said: "In some cases, yes," including the Black Hawks and the submarines. On supplying more PAC-3 missiles, he said this was "in discussions."

China suspended military-to-military contacts with the United States after then President George W. Bush notified Congress in October 2008 of plans to sell Taiwan a long-delayed arms package valued at up to $6.4 billion.

'VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENT'

The United States does not build diesel-electric submarines.

The design work, estimated at $360 million, would require a U.S. company to show it had the ability to build them or had found a foreign partner that would do so, said Ed Ross, director of operations at the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency from 1994 to 2007.

The cost of building eight diesel-electric submarines had been estimated at $10.2 billion and would take 10 to 15 years, he added in a telephone interview.

"It's a very significant event if they go forward with these sales," said Ross, now a defense consultant specializing in East Asia. "They are desperately needed for Taiwan's defense and deterrence to maintain the relative military balance in the Taiwan Strait."

The Black Hawk, a tactical transport helicopter, is built by Sikorsky Aircraft, a unit of United Technologies Corp.

The PAC-3 missile is built by Lockheed Martin Corp and Raytheon Co is the system integrator. Lockheed was the prime contractor for the original Po Sheng program, designed to integrate Taiwan's air, marine, ground and command and control assets in a single network.

Taiwan long has sought 60 Black Hawks and the submarines.

Bush had cleared both for sale in April 1991 but he omitted them when he finally sent Congress his 2008 arms package after much debate in Taiwan's legislative Yuan.

Included were up to 330 PAC-3 missiles and related gear valued at up to $3.1 billion, about half the amount Taiwan had sought for its defense against missiles and aircraft.

"We decided that trying to make up for the delays in the arms sale package in one fell swoop was potentially destabilizing to the improvements in cross-strait relations that occurred during the first year" of President Ma Ying-jeou's administration, Dennis Wilder, senior director for East Asian affairs on Bush's National Security Council staff, told Reuters in March.

"We also clearly told Taiwan that nothing had been taken off the table," Wilder said. "We wanted to leave the door open for the next U.S. administration to do its own review in consultation with Taiwan to decide on future arms sales."

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a September 16 speech that China's investments in anti-ship weaponry "could threaten America's primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific -- in particular our forward air bases and carrier strike groups."

(Editing by John O'Callaghan)


* Related article

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/16/world/asia/16taiwan.html
Arms Sales to Taiwan Will Proceed, U.S. Says
By EDWARD WONG
Published: December 15, 2009


___________________________________________________________________
2009년 12월 14일

안녕하세요. 믾은 분들께 보냅니다.

첨부 번역된 원문(2페이지)은 우주의 무기와 핵을 반대하는 글로벌 넷워크 사무 총장 브루스 개그논 (globalnet@mindspring.com/ http://www.space4peace.blogspot.com/http://www.space4peace.org)이 12월 10일 글로벌 넷워크 리스트를 통해 보낸 것입니다.

미국의 대만 무기 판매 계획은 미국의 나토를 이용한 대중 대 러시아 봉쇄 정책의 일환으로 보여집니다. [올해] 10월 이례적인 서해상 한-미 연합 훈련(중국을 염두에 둔)과 제주 해군 기지 계획과도 맥이 통하겠지요.

평 통사 고영대 공동 대표님은 나토 확장이 동쪽으로는 한반도를 긴장 요지로, 서쪽으로는 아프가니스탄과 이란등을 긴장 요지로 할 것을 지적하신 바 있읍니다. 이 모두 궁극적으로 중국과 러시아를 봉쇄하기 위한 것입니다. 브루스 개그논에 따르면 미국의 중국 침략은 2016년을 염두에 두고 있읍니다.

한호석 선생님에 따르면 중국은 1971년 미국과의 담판에서 대만의 미군 기지화를 중단하는 조건(세 조건 중 하나)으로 미국과의 수교를 시작했다 합니다. 첨부되는 글을 보시면 현재 미국의 대만 무기 판매 계획이 얼마나 중국을 긴장시킬 지 알 수 있읍니다. 또한 록히드 마틴 등 전쟁과 갈등으로 이윤을 획득하는 무기 회사의 속내가 뻔히 보입니다.

평화넷트 워크 정욱식 대표님은 PAC-3, 이지스 구축함, 전구 고고도 지역 방어 시스템(Theater High Altitude Area Defense: THAAD)이 아시아 태평양 지역에서 미국의 3대 미사일 방어 사스템 목표임을 주지시킨 바 있읍니다.

첨부글에 나오듯. 미국의 대만 무기 판매 계획의 일환인 PAC-3는 현재 평택, 군산, 일본등에 이미 배치되어 있지요.

한편 브루스 개그논은 많은 기회를 통해 미국의 미사일 방어망을 통한 아시아 태평양 전략을 주의시킨 바 있읍니다.

여기를 보실 것(국, 영문)

http://nobasestorieskorea.blogspot.com/2009/10/bruce-gagnon-why-talk-on-issue-of.html

감사합니다.

___________________________________________________________________
원문 링크

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B906Y20091210

단독: 오바마, 대만에 무기 판매 눈독

Exclusive: Obama eyes arms sales to Taiwan

짐 울프 (Jim Wolf)

2009년 12월 3일

워싱턴(로이터)- 오바마 행정부는 디젤 전동 잠수함 디자인 작업을 포함, 대만을 대상으로 가능성있는 새 무기 판매를 향해 움직이고 있다고 국무부 관리가 수요일 로이터에 말했다.

중국은 대만에 대한 무기 판매를 강하게 반대하는데 대만은 베이징이 배반자의 지역으로 보는 곳이며 [그러한 무기 판매를] 내정 간섭으로 본다. 새로운 잠수함은 중국이 무력 행사권을 갖는 중국의 자치도에 대한 어떠한 해상 공격에도 도전하는 것을 도울 수 있다.

미국 국회로 또한 보고되려 하는 것은 대만에 UH-60 블랙 호크 (Black Hawk) 헬리콥터들을 파는 것이라고 로버트 코박, 국방 무역 담당 국무 차관보는 말했다.

그 외에도 오바마 행정부는 대만에 PAC-3 로 알려진 패트리어트 " 선진 능력" 미사일들과 함께 " 포 쉥"( 큰 승리) 명령 통제 프로그램을 위한 작전 거래들을 더 팔 것을 저울질하고 있다.고 코박은 말했다.

" 이 모든 것이 진행되고 있다," 고 그는 하원 외교부 하부 위원회의 미국 우주 항공 수출에 대한 청문회의 증언의 휴식 시간에 말했다,

"진행된다"라는 것이 판매 이전 서막 과정으로 국회에 보고하는 것으로 진전되고 있는 것을 의미하느냐는 질문에. 코박은 블랙 호크들과 잠수함 을 포함, "어떤 경우는, 예, 그렇소,"라고 말했다. 더 많은 PAC-3 미사일 판매에 대해서는, 그는 이것이 "토론 중." 이라 말했다.

중국은 2008년 10월 당시 대통령 조지 W. 부쉬가 오랫동안 지연되었던 64억달러의 값어치가 있는 무기 상품을 대만에 팔 계획을 국회에 보고하자 미국과의 군사 대 군사 계약을 유보했었다.

'매우 중요한 사건'

미국은 디젤 전동 잠수함을 만들지 않는다.

3억 6천만 달러에 달하는 그 디자인 작업은 한 회사가 그것들을 지을 능력을 갖고 있음을 보이거나 그렇게 할 외국 동업자를 찾았음을 보이는 것을 필요로 할 거라고 1994년 부터 2007년까지 국방부의 국방 안보 협조청의 작전 감독을 역임했던 에드 로스는 말했다.

8개의 디젤 전동 잠수함들 가격은 102억 달러로 추산되었고 10~15년이 걸릴 거라고 그는 텔레비전 인터뷰에 첨가했다.

" 만약 그들이 이 판매들을 진전시킨다면 매우 중요한 사건이 될 것이다," 라고 현재 동아시아 전문 국방 자문관, 로스는 말했다. "그것들은 대만 해협의 상대적인 군사적 균형을 유지하기 위해 대만의 방어와 억제를 위해 필사적으로 필요하다.

전술적 운송 헬리콥터인 블랙 호크는 유나이티드 테크놀로지 기업(United Technologies Corp.)의 일부인 시코르스키 항공사에 의해 지어진다.

PAC-3 미사일은 록히드 마틴 기업에 의해 만들어지며 레이시온 기업은 시스템 통합자이다. 록히드는 대만의 공중, 해양, 지상, 그리고 명령과 통제 자산을 단일 넷워크에 통합하도록 디자인되었던 원래의 포 쉥 프로그램의 주요 계약업자였다.

대만은 오랫동안 60 블랙 호크들과 잠수함들을 갖길 원했다.

부쉬는 1991년 4월 양자를 다 팔 것으로 확정지었으나 대만 입법인 유안과의 많은 토론끝에 그의 무기 상품을 2008년 국회에 최종 제출했을 때 그것들을 삭제했다.

포함된 것은 330 PAC-3 미사일들과 31억 달러의 값어치가 있는 관련 기어들로 대만은 그 것들의 약 반 가량이 대만이 미사일들과 비행기에 대항하는 방어용으로 찾았던 것들이다.

"리는 연기되었던 무기 상품 판매를 한꺼번에 해결하려 하는 것(?) 은 마 잉주 행정부 총리와의 첫 해 있었던 해협간 관계 개선을 잠정적으로 불안하게 할 수 있다라고 결정했다" 라고 데니스 왈더 , 부쉬의 국가 안보 연석 회의 스탭 동아시아 업무 선임 감독은 말했다.

"우리는 또한 대만에 아무 것도 안건에서 지워진 바 없다 (Nothing had been taken offthe table) 라고 윌더는 말했다. "우리는 차기 미 행정부에 과제를 넘겨 그 자신이 대만과 상의한 후 스스로의 심의를 거쳐 무기 판매를 결정하게 할 것을 원했다."

국방 장관 로버츠 게이츠는 9월 16일 연설에서 중국의 대함선 무기(?) 투자가 "미국이 태평양에서 힘을 행사하고 동맹국들을 돕는 주요한 일에 위협이 될 수 있다 보았다--특히 우리의 공군 기지들과 선체 공격 그룹들에."

(존 오칼라한 편집)