Text fwd: North Korea’s Satellite versus US-ROK Joint Military Exercise

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http://peacekorea.org/zbxe/essay/8579
North Korea’s Satellite versus US-ROK Joint Military Exercise
2009-03-12 16:59
Wooksik Cheong/2009-03-11

It is said that in order to dissolve hostile relations, mutual trust is vital. Needless to say, to facilitate the building of confidence, it is important to strive to consider the position of the opposing party rather than enforcing one’s position and thoughts upon them. This is finding out what it is like when the shoe is on the other foot. However, in the current situation of the Korean peninsula, there is no sign of an attempt to step into the shoes of the other position. Only one’s own assertion is justified and the other’s contention is merely considered under pressure. This is clearly illustrated by the offensive and defensive battles between the US-ROK alliance and North Korea surrounding the talks of North Korea’s preparation to launch an artificial satellite and the joint US-ROK military training, ‘Key Resolve.’

Disregarding the apprehension and warnings by the 3 states, US-ROK-Japan, North Korea is prepared to enforce the launch of an artificial satellite. They have refuted with ‘Why is there a dispute over the justified right of a sovereign nation?’ However, the US ROK and Japan have ruled the satellite as a ‘mask’ used to cover up the ‘face,’ which in actuality is an effort by North Korea to test launch a long-range ballistic missile. The stigmatism of ‘a wolf in sheep’s clothing’ is laid as the foundation for this assertion. Subsequent to stating the launch of the artificial satellite as a violation of the UN Security Council’s Resolution, additional sanctions are being suggested. An interception using a missile defense system (MD) is also being threatened.

Accordingly, this development of a US-ROK-Japan excessive countermeasure has the makings to complicate and endanger the situation more than the actual North Korean launch of the artificial satellite. This excessive counter plan begins with the stipulation of ‘Kwangmyongsong-2’ as the ‘Taepodong-2’. If one visions this dangerous but predictable scenario, the following is how it may unfold.

North Korea’s launch of artificial satellite; powerful criticism by US-ROK-Japan and a discussion of UN Security Council sanctions led by Japan; the dispersal of the adopted sanctions resolution against North Korea due to the opposition by China and Russia; the independent promotion of sanctions against North Korea by ROK and Japan and acceleration of US led MD construction; North Korea’s resistance and warning of suspending disablement of Yongbyon nuclear facilities; upsurge of tension on the Korean peninsula

Of course, the concerns of the US, ROK and Japan are not groundless. While the technology of North Korea may not be up to par, the technology used for launching the artificial satellite can be converted for ballistic missiles, and it is understood that North Korea’s enforcement of launching this satellite possesses this motivation.

However, this concern cannot be the basis of the conclusion that this satellite launch by North Korea is in fact, a ballistic missile. This is based on the fact that North Korean authority of peacefully utilizing space cannot be denied on the grounds that this technology may be diverted to ‘military use.’

Moreover, the initial reason behind the North Korean launch of the satellite is the significance of possessing of a satellite. If the goal of the North Korean launch of the artificial satellite lies only in the development of a ballistic missile, the agreement that North Korea arrived at with the US in 2000 at the missile talks, stating that ‘the development of a long-range ballistic missile will be suspended if the US launch a satellites on behalf of North Korea,’ cannot be explained. In addition, aligned with their philosophy of building a fortress state based on self-reliance, North Korea is executing this core project to ultimately possess a satellite by 2012.

The importance of accurately naming the satellite will arise at this point. If the international society unilaterally designates the launch of the satellite as ‘Taepodong-2,’ it will consequently bring about, either through the UN or independently, criticisms and sanctions, and coercive and military countermeasures, including a missile defense system and strengthened military preparations. However, this approach will provoke North Korea, only causing the situation on the Korean peninsula and the Northeast Asia region to become insecure.

Conversely, if the artificial satellite is acknowledged as such while the concern remains in the fact that this technology may be diverted towards the development of a ballistic missile, then a diplomatic solution may emerge. Reminiscent of the 2000 missile negotiations, a solution may be sought out that would arrange a US launch of the satellite in place of North Korea in exchange for suspending the development of long-range ballistic missiles.

North Korea, likewise, needs a posture of putting the shoe on the other foot. Even though the launch of the artificial satellite may be a justified right, if there is a risk of heightening the tension on the Korean peninsula, narrowing the breadth of decisions for the newly beginning Obama administration and fueling an arms race in the East Asia region, there will be a demand to wisely exercise self-restraint. Additionally, if what North Korea desires to have is truly the artificial satellite, the advisable process is to first, delay the enforcement of the launch and then propose to reconvene the missile negotiations.

It is also important for both the US and the ROK to take the position of putting themselves in the shoes of the opposing party in regards to the US-ROK combined military exercise called the ‘Key Resolve’ . Both the US and ROK spurn North Korea’s assertion that this exercise is ‘training to invade North Korea’ as an unjustified insistence and refuse their demands to suspend this exercise, viewing that as ‘defensive’ behavior. Still, in a militarily hostile state of affairs, it is unreasonable to expect the other party to not problematize the issue of one side pursuing such a large-scale training which mobilizes nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, cutting edge weaponry and ten thousands of military manpower. If the perspectives are switched, this is not a difficult issue to comprehend.

Supposing that the Chinese and North Korean forces held a massive military exercise maintaining it as ‘defensive and to have peace of mind,’ would the Republic of Korea find it acceptable? Moreover, aren’t both the US and ROK discussing the issue of Chairman Kim Jong-Il’s health problems and openly raising the issue of possible military intervention in the case of a sudden change or an unexpected occurrence in North Korea?

In a condition of military confrontation, ‘appropriate restraint’ may be needed but if the extent of this restraint exceeds the degree, it may bear side effects. The fact that North Korea, a state far behind in terms of a conventional armament race and military preparations, is tampering with nuclear weapons and missiles are proof of this.

There is a need for both President Lee Myung-Bak and President Obama to momentarily close their eyes and put themselves in the position of Kim Jong-Il regarding the US-ROK joint military exercise. The beginning in settling this problem is precisely here.

*Wooksik Cheong is the representative of Peace Network. Irena Kang, the intern of Peace Network contributed to translation.