Text Fwd: Missile Defense and the Korean Peninsula-What Is the Problem?

*Image Source/caption*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Sejong_the_Great_class_destroyer
'ROKS Sejong the Great (DDG 991) during the 2008 Busan International Fleet Review'


* Thanks to the translator, Agatha D. Haun, the article below was reproduced in the Tlaxcala website.
http://www.tlaxcala.es/pp.asp?reference=7276&lg=en

* Bruce Gagnon thankfully linked the article to his blog, Space4Peace(Organizing Notes).
http://space4peace.blogspot.com/2009/03/turning-to-korea.html

* Thanks to Dave Webb and Bruce Gagnon, this site was posted in.
http://www.space4peace.org/articles/md_and_korean_peninsula.htm

* Thanks to Makiko Sato, this site was translated in Japanese.
http://www.anatakara.com/petition/md-and-the-korean-peninsula.html

* Peace Making, on-line journal of the South Korea also loaded the article.
http://peacemaking.kr/english/

Missile Defense and the Korean Peninsula:
What Is the Problem?

Written by Cheong, Wooksik (http://www.peacekorea.org/english)
on March 6, 2009

Translated by Agatha D. Haun (http://www.tlaxcala.es/pp.asp?reference=7276&lg=en)


The reality of the partition of the Korean peninsula is certainly also revealed in the US's plan for a missile defense (MD) system. That is because North Korea, as the chief pretext for the promotion of MD, became the central issue in persuading South Korea to serve as the advanced base for the US's MD system. The Obama administration, which has just been inaugurated into this maelstrom, is more cautious about MD than the era of the Bush administration was. On the other hand, the Lee Myeong Bak administration, which regards the ROK-US "strategic alliance" structure as the supreme diplomatic and security policy objective, is more positive about MD than the Kim Dae Jung and Ro Mu Hyeon administrations were. Just at this point, the unsynchronized movements of the latest South-North-US three-party relationship are hidden. Furthermore, since MD dominates the complicated structure of relations between the US-Japanese alliance and the Chinese-Russian collaboration system, if the ROK clumsily inserts itself into that, it will not be a case of "bridge-building" between continental power and sea power; the ROK can be degraded as a "scapegoat". While such a situation is also developing in Northeast Asia, the ROK could find itself in a position like that of Poland, where the US-Russian controversy over the installation of an MD system in Eastern Europe resembles a "Second Cold War".

For the ROK, there are three categories of MD projects. First, the US is deploying an MD system inside the ROK; second, the government is promoting what it insists is an independent "Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD)". These two kinds are the models that are moving forward at present. And for the third, there is a question of whether the ROK will officially take part in the US's MD system. Of course, these three kinds are not completely separate. Participation by Poland and the Czech Republic in the MD system, disputed between the US and Russia, doesn't mean that these countries are purchasing the MD system, rather they are permitting the US to station its MD system on their territory. Similarly, without any connection to official announcements, the deployment of the US's MD system in the ROK can by itself be taken to mean that the ROK is already taking part in the MD system. Also, even though there is a political and diplomatic difference between the KAMD and official participation in the US's MD system, there is a close connection in the sense that there is no option but to integrate them in terms of military technologies.

The ROK's MD plans

Since the Lee Myeong Bak government was inaugurated, signs of a subtle but important change in the ROK's policy on missile defense have appeared. Above all, the Lee Myeong Bak government is giving impetus to the construction of the KAMD that had been considered at the time of the Kim Dae Jung and Ro Mu Hyeon governments and was in the initial phase of promotion. Military authorities have announced a plan to sink an estimated 300 billion won (250 milion dollars) into a "missile tracking and interception operations control center (AMD-Cell)", which will have full charge of the mission of monitoring and intercepting North Korean missiles, and to construct it by 2012. They also decided on a plan to buy early-warning radar with a detection range of about 500 km, and a plan to complete the selection of the kinds of apparatus, focused on the Israeli Elta company's Green Pine and the French-Dutch joint Thales Raytheon Systems company's M3R, by April this year and to make the purchase next year. In addition, in stages, from this year to 2011, three Aegis vessels' AN/SPY-1D(V) radar will be deployed on active duty, and four units of the aerial early warning system (AEWS), scheduled to be introduced by 2012, will also play the part of the ROK MD's "sensor".

Together with this, the plan is that 48 Patriot-2 (PAC-2) missiles brought from Germany by this year and medium-range surface-to-air missiles, called "Soot-2", will take on the role of the ROK MD's interceptor missiles. In order to enhance the interception capability, they are investigating the possibility of gradually installing missiles, including the SM-6, on Aegis ships, and the second SAM-X project for additional interceptors. Since the Lee Myeong Bak administration was installed, these are the most important indicators that tell us that the "ROK type of MD", forming a line of interceptor missiles -- sensors -- operational control centers, appears to be starting in earnest .

When we look at it in political terms, KAMD can appear to be independent. However, when we consider the special character of the military structure known as the ROK-US mutual defense system, and the nature of its interoperabilities, joint MD military operations with the US are unavoidable. USFK commanders constantly emphasize the point that the KAMD must be combined and employed with the US's system. Also, concerning participation in MD, the ROK's Minister of Defense likewise said in February this year that, "An investigation at the national strategic level is necessary, considering the ROK-US alliance and the security conditions on the Korean peninsula, the budget requirements, etc." While this kind of ROK type of MD appears to be independent, in actuality it seems that most probably it will be integrated into the US system.

How much will it cost?

An extravagant sum of money is required for MD, so much that in the US, it is known as "the goose that laid the golden eggs" to the military sector and "money-swallowing hippopotamus" to the taxpayer. If that is the case, how much will the ROK's MD participation cost in economic terms? Of course the appropriation is different, depending on the scale and components of MD. The PAC-2 that the ROK is purchasing from Germany costs a trillion won [about $0.7 billion], and if they upgrade this to the PAC-3, it will cost as much as an additional one trillion won [about $0.7 billion]. It is estimated that it would also cost as much as one to two trillion won [about $0.7~1.4 billion] to equip three Aegis vessels with SM-2 Block 4 and SM-6, as well as SM-3 that are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Moreover, 250 billion won[about $172 million] will be sunk into an early warning radar system, two trillion won [about $1.4 billion] for an aerial early warning system (AEWS), 300 billion won [about $207 million] for a missile tracking and interception operational cont00rol system, 500 billion won[about $344 million] for a "Soot-2" system, and so on.

If we put this all together, just the cost of acquiring them amounts to five to seven trillion won[about $3.4billion~4.8billion]. If we include in this the necessary operation and maintenance expenses, which are usually about twice as much, the total cost of the system skyrockets to about 20 trillion won[about $14 billion]. In a situation where many people face a threat to their survival because of extreme economic difficulty, fundamental questions must arise about whether it is truly appropriate to use for mirage-like weapons systems many tens of trillions of won of tax money squeezed out of the citizens.

The best thing to do is to cancel MD!

In this case, whether it is an ROK MD, or participation in the US MD, while MD cannot give real protection against the threat of North Korean missiles, squandering such an enormous amount of money on a device that will give no protection means increasing the tension in South-North relations, intensifying the arms race on the Korean peninsula, and provoking uncertainty in relations with China and Russia. Expenses related to MD, if they include the fatal maintenance costs, amount to several tens of trillions of won[about $20~30 billion] .

In addition, North Korea's intention to reinforce the military strength of its missiles, and desire to incapacitate the ROK-US MD, are related to the reinforcement of the ROK-US MD's capabilities. It is an arms race between the "spear and shield". While the US intends to press ahead with stationing an MD system in Eastern Europe, an emerging "Second Cold War" could also be revived in East Asia. That is because North Korea, and of course China and Russia, also are focusing their attention on the East Asia MD system, in which the US is taking the leading role. For this reason, before the ROK falls into the MD morass, the Lee Myeong Bak administration must make a choice that takes into consideration the economy, the national interests and regional peace.


* Note by No Base Stories of Korea*

_ The conversion price from won to dollar is based on the approximate price of 1$=1450 won in March, 2009.

_ Cheong, Wooksik’s most recent English translated writing is
http://nobasestorieskorea.blogspot.com/2009/03/text-fwd-north-koreas-satellite-versus.html
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Text fwd: North Korea’s Satellite versus US-ROK Joint Military Exercise

_ Related site (Site info. provided by Cheong, Wooksik)
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3949088
South Korea to Complete Missile Defense by 2012

_ Related site
The Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea


Bio

Writer, Wooksik Cheong is one of the founding members and the representative of Peace Network, a non-governmental organization formed in 1999, working for peace and disarmament in the Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. The reason that he founded the Peace Network was that he felt so sad about the North Korean humanitarian tragedy. He thought that this tragedy would be resolved by making peace and reducing military spending on the Korean Peninsula. While striving hard to realize these goals with his colleagues since then, he recognized that it was much difficult to achieve them in the short-term. He has worked as a full-time staff member from the beginning of Peace Network to the present. As a peace activist, an independent researcher, and a journalist, he has organized many campaigns and conferences, written books and essays, and made speeches both in Korea and abroad. He is the leading member of the Korean committee for the International Conference against the Asia Pacific Missile Defense and for the End of Arms Race, Seoul, South Korea, April 16-18, 2009 and is one of the main speakers in the April 17 symposium program of the conference. The conference program will be officially updated soon. (wooksik@gmail.com)

Translator Agatha D. Haun is a PhD from the Stanford University, in Japanese and Russian. Her other studies are in European and Asian languages, history, social sciences. She has done Post-doctoral study at the University of Helsinki, Finland. She is a Peace activist and free-lance translator for non-governmental organizations in Europe and Korea. She often loads her translated works to the website of the Tlaxcala, the ‘translators’ networks for linguistic diversity’. (dillardhaun@gmail.com)


* Original Korean writing of the above*

MD와 한반도, 무엇이 문제인가?
정욱식(평화네트워크 대표), 2009 년 3월 6일

한반도 분단 현실은 미국의 미사일방어체제(MD) 계획에도 어김없이 드러난다. 북한은 MD 추진의 최대 구실로, 남한은 미국 MD의 전초기지이자 포섭 대상이 되어왔기 때문이다. 이러한 와중에 출범한 오바마 행정부는 부시 행정부 때보다 MD에 신중하다. 반면 한미간의 ‘전략동맹’ 구축을 최고의 외교안보정책 목표로 삼아온 이명박 정부는 김대중-노무현 정부보다 MD에 적극적이다. 바로 이 지점에 최근 남-북-미 3자관계의 엇박자가 숨어 있다. 더구나 MD는 미일동맹과 중러협력체제 사이의 갈등 구조도 깔고 있기 때문에, 한국이 어설프게 발을 들여놓으면 대륙세력과 해양세력 사이의 ‘가교’가 아니라 ‘희생양’으로 전락할 수 있다. 미국과 러시아가 동유럽 MD를 둘러싸고 ‘제2의 냉전’을 방불케 하는 상황이 동북아에서도 벌어지면서 한국이 폴란드와 같은 신세가 될 수 있다는 것이다.

한국에게 MD는 세 가지 범주가 있다. 첫째는 미국이 한국 내에 MD 시스템을 배치하고 있는 것이고, 둘째는 정부가 독자적이라고 주장하는 ‘한국형 미사일방어체제(KAMD)’를 추진하는 것이다. 이 두 가지는 현재진행형이다. 그리고 셋째는 한국이 공식적으로 미국 MD에 참여하는 것이다. 물론 이 세 가지는 완전히 분리된 것이 아니다. 미러간에 논란이 되고 있는 폴란드와 체코의 MD 참여는 이들 나라가 MD 시스템을 구입하는 것이 아니라, 미국의 시스템 배치를 허용하는 것이다. 마찬가지로 한국이 공식적인 선언과 관련없이 미국의 MD 시스템이 한국에 배치되는 것 자체가 이미 MD에 참여하고 있는 것이라고 해석할 수도 있다. 또한 KAMD와 미국 MD에의 공식 참여 사이에는 정치외교적인 차이는 존재하더라도 군사기술적으로는 통합될 수밖에 없다는 점에서 긴밀한 연관성을 갖는다.

한국의 MD 계획

이명박 정부 출범이후, 한국의 미사일방어체제(MD) 정책에 미묘하지만 중대한 변화의 조짐이 보이고 있다. 우선 이명박 정부는 김대중-노무현 정부 때 검토되거나 초기 추진 단계에 있었던 ‘한국형미사일방어체제(KAMD)’ 구축에 박차를 가하고 있다. 군 당국은 북한의 미사일을 탐지·요격하는 임무를 전담할 ‘탄도유토탄 작전통제소(AMD-Cell)’를 3천억원의 예산을 투입해 2012년까지 구축한다는 계획을 발표했다. 또한 탐지거리 500km 안팎의 조기경보레이더 구매 방침을 정하고, 이스라엘 엘타의 그린파인(Green Pine)과 프랑스-네덜란드 합작사인 탈레스의 M3R을 대상으로 올해 4월까지 기종 선정을 끝내고 내년에 구매한다는 방침도 세웠다. 아울러 올해부터 2011년까지 단계적으로 실전배치에 들어가는 3척의 이지스함의 AN/SPY-1D(V) 레이더와 2012년까지 4대가 도입될 예정인 공중조기경보통제기(AEWS)도 한국 MD의 ‘센서’ 역할을 하게 된다.

이와 더불어 올해까지 독일로부터 도입될 48기의 패트리어트-2(PAC-2)와 ‘철매-2’로 불리는 중거리 지대공유도무기는 한국 MD의 요격미사일 역할을 담당한다는 계획이다. 요격 능력을 강화하기 위해 이지스함에 SM-6를 비롯한 미사일 추가 확보 및 2차 차기방공망사업(SAM-X) 사업 추진도 검토 중이다. 요격미사일-센서-작전통제소로 이뤄지는 ‘한국형 MD’가 이명박 정부 출범이후 본격화될 조짐을 보이고 있다는 것을 알 수 있는 대목들이다.

정치적으로 볼 때, KAMD는 독자적인 것처럼 보일 수 있다. 그러나 한미연합방위체제라는 군 구조의 특성과 상호운용성을 고려할 때 미국과의 공동 MD 작전은 불가피하다. 주한미군 사령관들은 KAMD가 미국 시스템과 통합되어 운용되어야 한다는 점을 줄곧 강조해왔다. 또한 한국의 국방장관 역시 2009년 2월 MD 참여에 대해 “한미동맹과 한반도 안보 상황, 예산 소요 등을 고려해 국가전략 차원에서 검토가 필요하다”고 말했다. 이러한 기류는 한국형 MD가 독자적인 모양새를 띠면서도 실제로는 미국과 통합될 가능성이 높다는 것을 보여준다.

비용은 얼마나 드나?

미국에서 군산복합체에게는 ‘황금알을 낳은 거위’로, 납세자에게는 ‘돈 먹는 하마’로 불릴 정도로 MD에는 엄청난 예산이 소요된다. 그렇다면 한국의 MD 참여시 그 재정적 비용은 얼마나 될까? 물론 예산은 사업 규모에 따라 달라진다. 한국이 독일로부터 구매하고 있는 PAC-2는 1조원이 소요되고 있고, 이를 PAC-3로 업그레이드 할 경우에 드는 추가적인 비용은 1조원 정도이다. 3척의 이지스함에 탄도탄 요격이 가능한 SM-2Block4나 SM-6, 그리고 SM-3를 장착하는 비용도 1-2조원 정도로 추산된다. 또한 조기경보레이더 사업에 2천5백억원, 공중조기경보통제기(AEWS)에 2조원, 탄도유토탄 작전통제소 사업에 3천억원, 철매-2 사업에 5천억원 등이 투입된다.

이를 종합해보면 획득사업비만도 5-7조원에 달한다. 여기에 통상 2배 안팎이 소요되는 운영유지비를 포함할 경우 총사업비는 20조원 안팎으로 폭등한다. 극심한 경제난으로 많은 국민들이 생존의 위협에 직면한 상황에서, 수십조원의 혈세가 신기루와 같은 무기 사업에 사용되는 것이 과연 타당한가라는 근본적인 의문이 제기되지 않을 수 없는 것이다.

MD, 안하는 것이 최선!

이처럼 한국 MD이든, 미국 MD 참여이든, MD는 북한 미사일 위협에 실질적인 대비책은 되지 못하면서, 막대한 예산 낭비와 남북관계의 불안 및 한반도 군비경쟁 격화, 그리고 중국, 러시아와의 관계 불안을 야기하고 말 것이다. 운영유지비를 포함할 경우 MD 관련 비용은 수십조원에 달한다. 또한 북한은 미사일 전력을 강화해 한미 양국의 MD를 무력화하려고 할 것이고, 이는 한미 양국의 MD 능력 강화로 이어질 것이다. ‘창과 방패’ 사이의 군비경쟁이다. 미국이 동유럽에 MD 배치를 강행하려고 하면서 불거진 ‘제2의 냉전’이 동북아에서도 재연될 수 있다. 북한은 물론이고 중국과 러시아도 미국 주도의 동아시아 MD 체제에 촉각을 곤두세우고 있기 때문이다. 한국이 MD의 늪에 빠져들기 전에 이명박 정부가 경제와 국익을 고려한 선택을 해야 할 까닭이다.