Text Fwd: Russians See U.S. Missile Defense in Poland Posing Nuclear Threat

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http://www.cfr.org/publication/18813/russians_see_us_missile_defense_in_poland_p\
osing_nuclear_threat.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3D\
interview
Russians See U.S. Missile Defense in Poland Posing Nuclear Threat
Council on Foreign Relations
March 18, 2009

Interviewee: Pavel Felgenhauer, Defense Columnist, Novaya Gazeta
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org

-[Russia believes] that nuclear missiles will be deployed in Poland near Russia
and these nuclear missiles will have also a first-strike capability and could
hit Moscow before [Russia's response] could get airborne, so this is going to
actually be seen not so much as missile defense as a deployment of first-strike
capability.

-The Russian military has been telling its political leaders that this missile
plan is actually not what the Americans say it is. The Russian military says
that these missiles will be nuclear armed because the Russian military doesn’t
believe that non-nuclear defensive missiles are possible.

Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent defense analyst in Moscow, says some Russian
military leaders fear the U.S. missile defense system planned for installation
in Poland and the Czech Republic is really intended to deploy nuclear-armed
missiles.

Felgenhauer says some Russian military officials warn these missiles could
present a deadly first-strike threat against Moscow. Felgenhauer says the
Kremlin wants a new arms control treaty with the United States that limits
missile defense capabilities. "Though many Democrats are rather skeptical about
missile defense, the notion of missile defense is nevertheless popular in the
United States, and I don't believe that the two sides could approve any new
treaty which will not forbid future development of a global missile defense," he
says.
....
Now the key issue from the Russian side in recent years has been the plan to
develop a missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic, ostensibly to
protect against possible Iranian missiles. Is that still the main issue worrying
the Russian side?

Yes, it's seen as very undesirable by Moscow. The Russian military has been
telling its political leaders that this missile plan is actually not what the
Americans say it is. The Russian military says that these missiles will be
nuclear-armed because the Russian military doesn't believe that non-nuclear
defensive missiles are possible. At least most of them don't.

Moscow very much wants in writing a pledge from the United States that a global
missile defense will not develop. This, I believe, is the main stumbling block
in the future relationship between the Kremlin and the Obama administration.
Please explain.

Russia has its own deployed missile defense shield. This is its nuclear defense.
A nuclear warhead, a megaton-quality capable of exposing a couple of kilometers
of targets, can disable incoming nuclear warheads. The Russian military believes
that such a missile defense is more or less possible, but the American notion of
non-nuclear warheads, "bullets hitting bullets," is a smokescreen.

They believe that nuclear missiles will be deployed in Poland near Russia and
these nuclear missiles will have also a first-strike capability and could hit
Moscow before [Russia's response] could get airborne, so this is going to
actually be seen not so much as missile defense as a deployment of first-strike
capability.

And that's why Russia is so nervous.

That's why Russia is so insistent that there should be Russian inspectors on the
site to see that there is no nuclear deployment. What made Moscow so nervous
specifically about the [planned] deployment in Poland is that, as a missile
defense, it cannot really threaten Russia at all. But it's seen differently as a
nuclear first strike threat.

Is the Russian concern about the missile deployment also political?

Moscow does not like the Americans deploying any kind of military infrastructure
in the former Warsaw Pact countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania,
Bulgaria, and also of course the Baltic republics [Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania]. Moscow would want to be consulted on any military infrastructure
deployment in these former Soviet-dominated nations, which would actually mean
that Russia would have an equal power over deployment of any military
infrastructure. Then there's the problem of missile defense in not just Poland
and the Czech Republic, but the [potential for] global missile defense being
created by the United States. Right now there is no global defense, but sometime
after 2020 or 2030 this defense could be deployed and could threaten the
effectiveness of the Russian nuclear deterrent.

So right now, in the run-up to this April 1 summit in London, Moscow has further
spelled out its desire for a new treaty on arms control, which includes the
creation of some kind of updated Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. Moscow
very much wants in writing a pledge from the United States that a global missile
defense will not develop. This, I believe, is the main stumbling block in the
future relationship between the Kremlin and the Obama administration. Though
many Democrats are rather skeptical about missile defense, the notion of missile
defense is nevertheless popular in the United States, and I don't believe that
the two sides could approve any new treaty which will not forbid future
development of a global missile defense.

The Russian military has been telling its political leaders that this missile
plan is actually not what the Americans say it is. The Russian military says
that these missiles will be nuclear armed because the Russian military doesn’t
believe that non-nuclear defensive missiles are possible.
....
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