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http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/NATO033009.xml&headline=Europe%20Warms%20to%20Missile%20Defense%20as%20US%20Cools&channel=defense
Aviation Week, March 30, 2009
Europe Warms to Missile Defense as US Cools
By Michael A Taverna, Robert Wall, Douglas Barrie and Andy Nativi

-[W]orking groups would be asked to study architectures for expanding the
alliance’s current emphasis on theater missile defense into a network covering
all of Europe, and to begin cooperatively developing key new components such as
early warning systems and interceptors..... French President Nicolas Sarkozy has
made missile defense a priority. The 2009-13 military spending plan, now before
parliament, includes a number of items earmarked for this area.
-The cornerstone of territorial BMD will be NATO’s Active Layered Theater
Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) and notably its Air Command and Control
System (ACCS), which is being supplied by Thales Raytheon Systems. ALTBMD is
effectively the backbone to link NATO’s disparate systems, ranging from
Patriot and Meads batteries to ships and potentially a U.S. interceptor site in
Poland....NATO is preparing to deploy the ACCS at 15 sites in 13 countries....
-[M]issile defense activities in the Netherlands also are ramping up. A
demonstration test shot of the Raytheon SM-3 ballistic missile interceptor off
of a Dutch ship is planned this year, a senior U.S. official notes.


This week’s NATO summit was supposed to serve as a catalyst to drive missile
defense activities forward in Europe. But with Washington still defining its
policy stance, the brakes are being put on expectations.

In another key area of alliance concern—Afghanistan—U.S. efforts to enlist
greater European force commitments are also not likely to materialize, says
Robert Hunter, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and senior adviser at the Rand
Corp. The Apr. 3-4 summit in Germany and France comes about six months too early
for the Obama administration to have worked out a number of issues, he
indicates.

Arms control and disarmament constitute a concern that the alliance’s
strategic concept needs to address, says German defense minister Franz Josef
Young. “We need new initiatives for conventional arms control,” he argues.

But for European missile defense efforts, the summit had been regarded as a key
venue in which to urge members to embrace the concept of continental defense.
The Pentagon’s push for a European site for the ground-based midcourse
system—with a radar in the Czech Republic and interceptors in Poland—would
be the centerpiece. But the Obama administration has yet to articulate a clear
path forward on the third site, which Russia has strenuously opposed. As a
result, the Czech government this month decided not to seek parliamentary
endorsement for the radar construction.

In addition, it was hoped that working groups would be asked to study
architectures for expanding the alliance’s current emphasis on theater missile
defense into a network covering all of Europe, and to begin cooperatively
developing key new components such as early warning systems and interceptors. A
German military official has warned that without U.S. sites in Europe, there
would be no missile defense shield built on the continent.

However, not everyone shares that assessment. “Dropping the third site would
have no impact from a capability standpoint; there are other solutions
available,” says Richard Deakin, senior vice president of Thales Air Systems
Div., although he concedes there would be political repercussions from the
U.S.’s backing away from the so-called third site (augmenting those in Alaska
and California).

“We think BMD [ballistic missile defense] will be less important in Strasbourg
than initially expected,” says MBDA CEO Antoine Bouvier. “The likely
result,” he notes, is that there will be more of a focus on expanding air
defense capability to cover a range of new threats, using a building-block
approach, rather than a pure BMD program. MBDA is pursuing a dual-track
approach, with the Aster 30 Block 1 for the SAMP/T system providing a capability
against short-range ballistic threats. The Aster Block 2 design, with its high
endoatmospheric-intercept capability, would be able to counter medium-range
weapons.

Bouvier suggests that Aster Block 2 would be capable of engaging weapons such as
the SS-26, which follows a flattened trajectory and can begin terminal maneuvers
at altitudes of roughly 25,000 meters (82,000 ft.).

The Block 2 missile is intended to be compatible with both land and naval
launchers for the Aster 30.

France, which is expected to fully return into the NATO structure, is stepping
up its interest in missile defense. In contrast, European efforts are largely
fractured, with countries having been unable to agree on a common approach. That
leaves European governments charting different courses.

For example, at the end of the development period for the Medium Extended Air
Defense System (Meads) lower-tier anti-missile program, the Italian air force
will decide whether to acquire 2-4 batteries. The country’s navy is more
committed to missile defense but hasn’t yet determined whether to embrace a
European or U.S. interceptor.

Meanwhile, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has made missile defense a priority.
The 2009-13 military spending plan, now before parliament, includes a number of
items earmarked for this area. The most notable are an early warning
satellite/radar network and a Block 2 Aster air defense system that are supposed
to be operational by 2020.

Further funding is expected to come from a 2.3-billion euros ($3.1-billion)
French government economic stimulus package for aerospace and defense projects
approved last year, says Bouvier. With President Barack Obama willing to give
U.S. allies a more equitable role in common defense, “it’s an opportunity
for Europe to make its voice heard and contribute in kind, not just with
funding,” he says.
....
The cornerstone of territorial BMD will be NATO’s Active Layered Theater
Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) and notably its Air Command and Control
System (ACCS), which is being supplied by Thales Raytheon Systems. ALTBMD is
effectively the backbone to link NATO’s disparate systems, ranging from
Patriot and Meads batteries to ships and potentially a U.S. interceptor site in
Poland.

After a long development period that ended with factory acceptance testing last
year, NATO is preparing to deploy the ACCS at 15 sites in 13 countries, although
the system’s full functionality remains to be further enhanced. A framework
contract for the deployment phase, known as Replication, will be issued in June
and contracts let in batches, starting in November and continuing through 2012.

The initial operating capability will be reached in 2010 or 2011, depending on
which software version (factory acceptance or Block 1 upgrade) is used, says
Mathieu. Upgrade 1 renders the system compatible with NATO’s latest
planning/tasking requirements and provides new automation, interactivity and
real-time data features, as well as the ability to interface with existing
hardware. Full operating lower-tier capability will be reached in 2013 and full
upper tier in 2014-16.

The same architecture will be retained for territorial missile defense,
according to Mathieu, although specific new functions, such as the full air
picture, will be added.

Work on the Block 2 Aster, which will expand the defense capability to counter
ballistic and cruise missiles, is already underway under a French technology
development program, says Bruno Delacour, vice president of advanced weapon
solutions at Thales’s Air Systems Div. Block 2 will feature a long-range radar
to be derived from France’s M3R demonstrator.

The M3R—a fully distributed derivative of Thales’s new Ground Master 400
S-band active-array radar family—will begin tracking trials this year. Block 2
also will include a Ka- rather than a Ku-band seeker. It will be able to handle
the faster speeds and smaller radar cross sections of longer-range missiles.
This seeker is also set to start trials in 2009.

In the meantime, budget lines for operational geostationary early warning
satellite and radar systems are ready and awaiting approval in the multiyear
French defense spending plan. The objective is for technology to be mature
enough for development to begin around 2013. France says it is prepared to go
ahead with the undertaking, whether or not it lines up with other European
partners. The system, comprising one satellite initially, will draw on
experience from a twin-microsatellite demonstrator called Spirale, launched
early this year. It would cost 1-2 billion euros.

Mathieu says the very-long-range early warning ground radar will be based, like
the M3R, on the GM 400. However, its parallel architecture will require a
significantly greater scale than the M3R, which he admits will pose a challenge.
“The GM 400 was a hardware breakthrough; now we have to operate a software
breakthrough,” he quips.

Meanwhile, missile defense activities in the Netherlands also are ramping up. A
demonstration test shot of the Raytheon SM-3 ballistic missile interceptor off
of a Dutch ship is planned this year, a senior U.S. official notes.
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