Text Fwd: Conspiracy theory on Lotte whodunit

Korea Times
Conspiracy theory on Lotte whodunit
By Jung Sung-ki

A spy break-in of an Indonesian special envoy’s hotel room in Seoul last week made headlines here and abroad and cast doubts on a number of angles.

On the operational side, the state spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), was rightly scorned. Its maneuvers to obtain information on Indonesia’s plans, including the potential purchase of T-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer aircraft, jointly developed by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) and Lockheed Martin of the United States were amateurish.

As for the political side, suspicion erupted about a test of authority between the NIS and the Defense Security Command (DSC), the military’s top intelligence-gathering branch. The two agencies have competed hard to gain up-to-date information about arms sales, which President Lee Myung-bak has called a new growth engine.

Some political insiders and intelligence officials depicted the spy scandal as the results of a simmering power game in the NIS between those supporting NIS chief Won Se-hoon and a group allegedly under the command of President Lee’s elder brother, Lee Sang-deuk.

The media was the subject of debate for making public the details of the botched intelligence operation at the risk of a diplomatic feud.

In all events, the finger was pointed at the NIS in the end for “harming national interest” on T-50 export negotiations that may have been close to a final agreement.

Citing unidentified government sources, many local newspapers claimed the bungled espionage attempt would likely deal a fatal blow to Seoul’s first chance of selling the luxury trainer jet.

It seems they took it for granted that Jakarta was in favor of the $25 billion Korean aircraft over Russia’s subsonic Yak-130 in its advanced trainer aircraft contest to buy 16 planes.

At this point, I can’t help raising my own doubt: Did Indonesia came close to buying the T-50?

From a nationalistic point of view, I hope that they did. But from a journalistic perspective, I can say that’s not the case now.

I’m not against the T-50, but no decision has been made by Indonesia regarding the aircraft, and the prospects for its export remain bleak due mainly to the jet’s high price tag, according to high-ranking officials at the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), the NIS and the DSC.

After returning from Indonesia in December, former DAPA Commissioner Chang Soo-man, who stepped down last week over a bribery scandal, admitted that the T-50 sale to Indonesia had virtually failed because Jakarta was negative about the Golden Eagle’s high price tag and was being lobbied intensively by the Kremlin. Chang was a key member of President Lee Myung-bak’s delegation at the time.

“When President Lee and (Susilo Bambang) Yudhoyono held a summit, I sat just beside them and listened carefully to their conversation, hoping that the Indonesian leader would mention something about the T-50. But I couldn’t hear any mention of the ‘T’ word, and President Lee was also very disappointed,” Chang recalled in a meeting with reporters.

Following the trip Lee ordered efforts to speed up the privatization of the KAI, as his patience was wearing thin over exporting the T-50. The Korea Finance Corp. subsequently announced plans to sell its 30.1 percent stake in KAI by the year’s end.

On top of that, the head of state is said to have directed an audit of the KAI to look into alleged management failures in exporting the T-50.

A DAPA official in charge of weapons exports also voiced concerns on the outlook for T-50 sales.

“We’ve not engaged in specific negotiations with Indonesians over the T-50, and Indonesia hasn’t given any positive signal for the aircraft purchase,” said the official. “There were a few discussions about the T-50 when the Indonesian delegation visited Seoul last week. I don’t know why such groundless reports have been published, and I’m worried that such hasty action could provoke a backlash in negotiations.”

The T-50 is South Korea’s flagship weapons system and its export will serve as a springboard for the country to quadruple overseas arms sales to $4 billion by 2020 and become a top seven weapons exporter.

Against that backdrop, Cheong Wa Dae could be pressed to make the first sale of the T-50 and show off the CEO-turned-President’s business skills, following the back-to-back defeats in attempts to sell the Golden Eagle to the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.

One more conspiracy theory occurs to me. Are Lee’s office and KAI smiling behind the scenes because they’ve shifted the blame for an anticipated failure in sales of the T-50 to Indonesia to the NIS? More conspiracy theories may be conjured up before this spy saga ends.
gallantjung@koreatimes.co.kr